-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
208
FXUS61 KILN 181016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
616 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid air mass remains in place today with additional
rounds of storms possible. Humidity values will slightly
decrease on Wednesday and through the rest of the week, but
unseasonably hot daytime temperatures and mild overnight lows
will persist.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad area of high pressure is stretched across the eastern
CONUS. The center of the high remains off the Atlantic coast,
keeping the ILN fa on the western periphery of the high pressure
system once again. This will maintain south-southwesterly flow,
offering a more maritime air mass in the Ohio Valley today.

Our CWA will remain in a relative minimum of shower/storm
activity through the rest of the morning hours. However, we
will once again see convective activity increase again this
afternoon. The environment appears to be slightly less
favorable for storm coverage and severe storm potential compared
to what we saw Monday. Shear values are still unfavorable, but
SBCAPE could still increase to near 2000 J/kg. Additionally,
steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE values near or exceeding
1000 J/kg indicate a potential threat for downbursts in any
storms that initiate. Thus, while we are not expecting a great
potential for severe storms, an isolated strong to severe storm
cannot be completely ruled out, with straight-line winds being
the primary concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Shower/storm activity expected to wane Tuesday evening with the
loss of diurnal heating. Expect another night of very mild low
temperatures in the middle 70s for most.

Even though the center of the surface high pressure system
drifts slightly eastward into the Atlantic on Wednesday, the
system continues to strengthen and will still increase pressure
values across our CWA. The positioning of the high will
actually lead to a subtle wind shift, becoming more
southeasterly. This will lead to a (very) minor relief in
humidity values, decreasing dewpoints by a couple degrees
compared to Tuesdays values. Precip activity will be even more
limited on Wednesday, mainly focused northwest of I-71.

Heat Advisory will continue through the period even though HI
values exceeding 100 degrees will be limited on Wednesday. The
prolonged heat wave is the primary factor for keeping the heat
headlines active.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expansive upper ridge will retrograde during the latter part of the
week and get suppressed south as a trough emerges out of the
Canadian Rockies on Saturday. Hot conditions will be persistent
during this period. Daytime highs will nudge upwards just slightly
with Friday and Saturday likely being the hottest days. Dew points
are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 60s which results in a
heat index mainly in the 95 to 100 range. Lows will generally be in
the lower 70s with some urban areas remaining in the mid 70s. Heat
advisory remains in effect through Friday although there is a high
likelihood that it will be extended into Saturday at some point this
week. Isolated diurnal convection is not out of the question along
the periphery of the ridge, so for far northern counties.

Trough will deepen but remain progressive as it moves east southeast
across the Great Lakes and into New England late in the period. This
will drive a cold front through the area Sunday afternoon and
evening with showers and thunderstorms occurring ahead of it. High
pressure will then build in for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid and low level clouds will overspread the region today.
Additional rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon/evening. Expecting pulse storms once
again, so only have a VCTS mention for now given the limited
coverage and timing challenges.

Winds remain below 10 kts from the south-southwest through the
period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark