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803
FXUS61 KILN 161924
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
324 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move from the Carolina coast into the southern
Appalachians tonight into Tuesday where it will stall. The
region will be on the northern periphery of this large system
which will gradually weaken as the week progresses.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Few cumulus across the region are already decreasing and will
diminish completely with the loss of heating. High clouds
associated with low pressure moving inland from the Atlantic
coast will spread northwest across the region and likely thicken
in the latter part of the night. Plenty of dry air in place in
the low levels and with thin clouds during the evening,
temperatures should be able to drop off fairly quickly with lows
ending up in the 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Vertically stacked low pressure system will meander about the
southern Appalachians through the period. This will keep a fair
amount of cloud cover across the region. In addition, moisture
feed coming off the ocean combined with a disturbance rotating
around the top of the mid level system will try to bring some
showers into the southeastern part of the forecast area.
However, low levels will remain dry and most higher resolution
guidance is indicating that any measurable precipitation will be
meager. So PoPs have been kept in the low chance category with
little QPF.

Clouds will keep daytime temperatures a bit cooler than today
although highs will still be above normal except for perhaps in
northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. Lows will be warmer
with readings in the lower to mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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On Wednesday morning, an upper low will be centered over the
southern Appalachians, with its influence extending northward into
the Ohio Valley. The surface pressure pattern will not be
particularly well-defined, but there will be generally lower
pressures to the south of the Ohio Valley, with perhaps some
semblance of a trough extending northward into the area.

Over the course of Wednesday and Thursday, the upper low will be
gradually weakening and moving east, with its influence waning over
the Ohio Valley. This means that precipitation chances will be
lessening with time, though there will also be some diurnal
component to the probability of showers over the area. After several
forecast cycles in which precipitation chances appeared to be
trending slightly upward for this time period, today the model trend
appears to be slightly drier. PoPs on Wednesday are limited to the
southeastern half of the ILN forecast area, and an even smaller area
on Thursday. While there may still be a chance for an isolated
heavier shower (or even a thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon in the
far southeastern ILN CWA) the showers will be scattered, and
rainfall amounts for most locations will not be significant or
meaningful. With the upper low still in place, Wednesday may be the
coolest day of the extended period, with highs near normal in the
lower 80s. Highs will gradually increase over the next few days as
the upper low moves away.

Another area of high pressure will begin to build into the area
after the low weakens and shifts off to the east. This high should
be established over the region by Friday. Dry weather and gradually
warming temperatures are expected through the weekend. Precipitation
chances could increase slightly near the beginning of next week,
either from a more active pattern upstream or potential low
development in the southeast, but there is a wide disparity in model
solutions at that distance in the forecast. Thus, the forecast will
be kept dry once again, with very little chance of precipitation
in Days 5 through 7-8.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will continue through the period. A few cumulus early will
dissipate with the loss of heating. Otherwise, high clouds will
spread across the region from the east. Winds will be easterly
at 10 kt or less.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...