Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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058 FXUS61 KILN 111046 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 646 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains through tonight, along with the cooler and lower humidity air mass. This is replaced by much warmer air as the high pressure shifts to the east through midweek. A cold front approaches the region Thursday night, providing the next chance for thunderstorms. More extreme heat may arrive early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clear skies have allowed for temperatures to drop into the mid 40s. Some urban areas and ridge tops will remain in the lower 50s. Efficient cooling has allowed for the development of patchy fog within some local river valleys, primarily across the Scioto River Valley. No major changes to the forecast for today as high pressure slowly moves eastward overhead. Winds will be light and skies will be mostly sunny. Cumulus humilis will develop this afternoon and bands of cirrus should gradually move in from the northwest late today. High temperatures are still forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s. Bands of cirrus will thicken this evening with the weather remaining calm. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will have shifted to the east over the Mid- Atlantic by Tuesday night. Light southwesterly flow will provide a small bump in overall surface moisture and temperatures Wednesday afternoon with temperatures a few degrees above normal. Despite the small increase, insufficient low-level moisture means that the area will still be devoid any rainfall, continuing the recent dry pattern. The overall weather picture will remain quiet through Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A pair of mid level short waves will move east southeast across the southern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. This will help push a weak cold front southeast across our area Thursday night into Friday. Decent instability is forecast to develop to our west/northwest ahead of the front through the day on Thursday, but this better instability ahead of the front generally weakens as it moves into our area Thursday evening/night. Nonetheless, will likely still see the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to move into mainly our northern areas Thursday night and will continue with some lower chance pops. Some marginal deep layer shear will develop into our northwest through Thursday evening so it will be tough to rule our a few stronger storms Thursday evening across our northwest if we are able to get a little better instability into our area. Highs on Thursday will be in the 85 to 90 degree range. Surface high pressure will build across the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday leading to mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs both days in the mid to upper 80s. Mid and upper level ridging will then build in across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Sunday into Monday with increasing heights across the region. This will lead to a continued warming trend with highs on Sunday into the low to possibly mid 90s and highs on Monday in the mid 90s. Dewpoints are also forecast to slowly creep up through early next weak which will lead to heat indices in the low to mid 90s on Sunday afternoon and in the 95 to 100 degree range Monday afternoon. It will also be tough to rule up a late afternoon/evening pop up thunderstorm on Monday given the increasing moisture/instability. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure provides prevailing VFR restrictions. Winds will be light and remain generally north to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon before going back to light and variable Tuesday night. Some upper level clouds are also expected through the period. Valley mist/fog will once again be possible at LUK early Wednesday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...McGinnis