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958
FXUS61 KILN 270247
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1047 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight
with the passage of a cold front. Surface high pressure will
build in and provide drier weather through Friday. Another
system builds back in for the start of the weekend, leading to
additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Precipitation is exiting the region this evening. Cloud cover
will continue to decrease and winds will be pretty light
especially initially. Due to this have already started to see
some reduced visibilities. Expect additional fog development as
more clouds start to clear. Have patchy fog to patchy dense fog
in the forecast, however will have to monitor to see if specific
locations will need a dense fog advisory at some point. Working
against the fog is some slightly drier air working in and also
winds will pick up slightly more towards daybreak across the
northern portions of the region. It might be too little too late
however and for that reason have highlighted a large portion of
the region in the HWO for fog.

Low temperatures overnight will be in the lower 60s to upper
50s and went a little cooler than the blend for temperatures.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Thursday will offer more seasonable temperatures as surface high
pressure builds in from the NW. The northerly flow will help
usher in relatively drier air as well, with dewpoints ranging in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the weak CAA present, cu
development seems probable during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Still, expecting a fair amount of sunshine throughout the
day, with temperatures ranging in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

Skies clear out once again Thursday night, with favorable
radiative cooling leading to temperatures dropping into the
middle 50s to near 60 across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be shifting off to the east through the
day on Friday. Developing return flow on the back side of this will
allow for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s through the
afternoon.

Mid level short wave energy will spread east across the southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday night and then through the day on
Saturday with an associated cold front dropping southeast across our
region Saturday night. Increasing southwest flow and moisture
advection ahead of this will lead to a developing chance for showers
and thunderstorms, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Temperatures on Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the
timing of this but will generally range highs from the upper 80s in
the northwest to the lower 90s in the southeast. Surface dewpoints
will also be creeping up into the lower to possibly mid 70s through
the day so some heat indices of around 100 degrees or so may be
possible, especially across southeast portions of our area. This
will also lead to the potential for some decent destabilization
through the day so a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Pcpn chances will taper off
from the northwest later Saturday night as the cold front moves
through.

A cooler air mass will begin to filter into the region behind the
front on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s northwest to
the mid 80s in the southeast. Temperatures on Monday will be several
degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper
level ridging will build in from the southwest through mid week,
leading to a return to warmer temperatures with highs Tuesday and
Wednesday back into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some mid level energy
moving over the ridge will lead to some lower end chances for
thunderstorms toward the end of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Shower activity will quickly move out of the TAF sites this
evening and cloud cover will move out as well. There will then
be the potential for fog development overnight. It might be a
case where the visibility drops and then improves slightly
before sunrise as winds start up just a bit, however in general
just start the fog a little earlier than typical and have it
lasting through the overnight. CAA cu will be in place for the
day on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...