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993
FXUS62 KMHX 290813
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
413 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front will wash out over eastern NC this morning. A
stronger front approaches late tomorrow and moves through
Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area from the
north on Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build the second
half of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 345 AM Sat...Weak frontal boundary/coastal trough sits
across the Outer Banks early this morning with a band of showers
and an occasional thunderstorm lifting northward across the
area in an axis of deeper moisture. Outside of this trough,
Atlantic high pressure remains dominant over the area underneath
a sub-tropical ridge.

Today marks the start of a warming trend as winds veer southerly
encouraging low-level WAA. Temperatures reach the mid 90s
inland, upper 80s along the coast. Heat index values will exceed
100 degrees for much of eastern NC by this afternoon with dew
points stuck in the 70s, but will fall just short of Advisory
criteria. Still, this magnitude of heat will still pose a risk
to vulnerable groups.

Shower and thunderstorm threat will progress inland from the
coast this morning, with rather quick development later this
morning thanks to little to no convective inhibition. Sea breeze
will become the main focal point for activity by the afternoon.
Influence of the ridge aloft and weak forcing point to mainly
isolated coverage (PoPs at 20-25%), and a severe threat is not
expected owing to negligible shear. Still, with PWATs around 2"
locally torrential downpours are favored and some spots could
receive a quick inch or two.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM Sat...Any convective activity will quickly
collapse by early evening, giving way to partly clear but
downright sultry conditions as a very moist airmass keeps lows
in the mid to upper 70s. Some spots along the OBX may not get
below 80. Cold front, associated with Canadian low pressure
ahead of shortwave troughing over the Great Lakes, will be
dropping towards the lee of the Appalachians overnight and low-
level southerly flow will increase in response, keeping winds
just elevated enough to preclude a fog risk. Offshore shower and
thunderstorm activity blossoms overnight and may graze coastal
areas early Sunday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 350 AM Sat...The start of the long term period will be
rather unsettled as a cold front approaches ENC on Sunday and
eventually tracks across the region on Monday. This front will
bring the threat for shower and thunderstorm activity mainly
Sunday night into Monday. However, this front will also give us
a brief respite from the heat and humidity early in the week.
High pressure then settles in from the north and west on Tue and
remains the main weather feature into the end of the week
bringing a return of hot and humid conditions to ENC by late
next week.

Sunday and Monday...Ridging begins to break down in advance of an
incoming positively tilted trough on Sunday. Surface trough
sets up around the Triad region Sun afternoon while further to
the west a cold front will be tracking across the Appalachians.
Southerly flow will continue to advect moisture across the area
with PWATs potentially surging to about 2-2.5 inches across ENC
on Sun. With the surface trough promoting lift, expect
scattered shower and thunderstorms to develop and gradually
track east across the Coastal Plain with some of these storms
becoming strong to severe in nature. As we get into Sun night
and Mon the cold front will approach ENC and then track across
the region Mon morning bringing more widespread precip with rain
and thunderstorm activity ending from NW to SE Mon afternoon.
By Sun afternoon, SBCAPES will increase to around 1500-2500
J/kg and with the surface trough promoting lift there will be an
isolated severe threat across ENC. Damaging winds, torrential
rainfall, and small hail will be the primary concern within the
strongest storms. The limiting factors in the severe threat Sun
afternoon will be the lack of strong forcing and weak wind shear
as deep layer shear will generally remain below 20 kts.

Out ahead of the front Sun night, a marginal severe environment
will remain in place. Instability will generally remain around
500-1000 J/kg and while shear will remain weak (generally 15-25
kts at most) the front will provide some stronger forcing
allowing for a continued damaging wind threat within the
strongest storms. In addition to this severe threat Sun
afternoon and evening, with PWATs generally at 2+ inches and an
expected slow storm motion, heavy rainfall will also be
possible. Latest guidance suggest widespread 1-2 inch rainfall
totals between Sun and Mon with localized amounts in excess of
3+ inches possible bringing a threat for isolated localized
flash flooding anywhere thunderstorms train over each other or
remain stationary.

Highs on Sun get well into the 90s and with dewpoints generally in
the 70s, temperatures will feel like 100-105 in the afternoon
bringing a threat for heat related impacts to our area. As we get
into Sunday night, lows get down into the 70s with high temps
on Monday not getting much higher, only into the low to mid 80s
as widespread cloudcover and ongoing rain and thunderstorm
activity limit heating on Monday.

Tuesday into the end of next week... Not much change in the forecast
from Tuesday onwards. Behind the aforementioned front, high
pressure builds in from the north and west and remains over the
Eastern Seaboard into the end of the week bringing mainly dry
weather to ENC though we may start seeing an increase in precip
chances by Fri. In addition to the dry weather a brief respite
from the heat is forecast on Tue and Wed with a return to hot
and humid conditions later next week as a warming trend
commences with heat related impacts becoming increasingly
likely to end the workweek next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sun/...
As of 150 AM Sat...VFR conditions prevail across regional
terminals this morning as stalled frontal boundary sits from
roughly KHSE to south of EWN and OAJ. Scattered shower activity
along this boundary is ongoing over OBX terminals but is not
expected to penetrate far enough inland to cause any impacts.
Main focus overnight remains a mix of fog and low stratus, with
IFR cigs most favored across the fair inner coastal plain (PGV
and ISO, 40-50% chance). Restrictive visibilities are less
likely, but weak signal remains for areas mainly south and west
of OAJ.

Cu field will rapidly form tomorrow morning and will likely see
a brief period of MVFR cigs to start the day, becoming VFR by
midday. Isolated showers and an odd storm or two are likely to
develop along the sea breeze and progress inland during the
typical afternoon hours (18-22z), but coverage is too sparse to
mention in TAFs.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat... No significant changes in the aviation
forecast as sub VFR conditions are becoming increasingly likely
Sun afternoon through Mon as a cold front tracks across the
region bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. VFR
conditions return Tues into Wed.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 400 AM Sat...Wet morning ongoing over area waters as
stalled coastal front sits along the Outer Banks, with waves of
showers and an occasional thunderstorm lifting northward over
offshore waters mainly within 20 nm of shore. Weak southerly
winds of 5-10 kt prevail area wide with seas ranging from 4-5
feet north of Cape Hatteras to 2-3 feet south.

Little change in this trend is expected as front washes out
later this morning. Shower activity will decrease through the
day, then blossom again late tonight with higher coverage as
cold front begins to drop south towards the Carolinas. Overnight
thermal gradient will kick southerly winds back up to around 15
kt around sunset tomorrow. Seas change little, with higher
swells remaining north of Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...High pressure ridging will push offshore on
Sun as a cold front approaches from the west. This will bring
10-20 kt S-SW`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our waters. In
addition to this, increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be likely Sun evening bringing a chance for
locally enhanced winds and seas within any storm that tracks
over our inland and coastal waters. Front will then track across
the region on Mon ending precip chances from north to south and
allowing winds to shift to a N`rly direction behind the front at
15-20 kts Mon morning with winds gradually easing down to 10-15
kts and becoming NE`rly by Tue as high pressure ridge once
again extends across the area from the north. Winds will ease
further Tue night into Wed down to 5-10 kts and continue to veer
to an E to SE direction as ridging gradually pushes offshore.
Seas will generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe
though 5 ft seas will be possible near the Gulf Stream waters
Mon.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF