184
FXAK67 PAJK 282134
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
134 PM AKDT Tue May 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Somewhat similar weather to the past few days
through Wednesday night. Southerly to southwesterly onshore flow
will continue to bring showers with an emphasis on the southern
panhandle. Those in the northern panhandle, look for existing
cloud cover to slowly erode away over the course of Tuesday
afternoon and through the night. Wednesday morning, a shortwave
trough looks to bring some enhanced showers to the central and
southern panhandle. While the word "enhanced" was used, in this
context, it is used as a small step up from the light showers
currently over the panhandle. Areas of the central panhandle may
see brief periods of localized moderate rainfall, around 0.05
inches per hour.

.LONG TERM..../Thursday through Tuesday/...The previous day`s
front will weaken over the Panhandle on Thursday as fast moving
ridge moves in. Some lingering shower activity and a wind shift
from southerly to northerly before the next stronger front moves
in. At this time the Eastern Gulf front moves in early Friday with
at least min gale force winds developing. More steady and
persistent rain begins as the front moves inland along with higher
QPF amounts, especially over the south. As the front`s parent low
fills and moves to the N winds and rain rates diminish Saturday.
However, any breaks will be very short lived as another broad
surface low moves over the gulf Sunday. Beyond that, indications
that the pattern will repeat as a series of surface lows move in
keeping SE AK under a wet weather pattern. For the overall
synoptic pattern operational and ensembles have remained in
general agreement through the mid and long range. Do have timing /
location differences early on. GFS/NAM have been in line and bit
more consistent run to run compared to ECMWF with the Canadian
being the obvious outlier. Kept with the previous forecast trend,
a nudge to GFS/NAM but held off on matching those models higher
wind speeds just yet.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Wednesday afternoon/...Broken to overcast
skies persist with scattered to isolated showers that just won`t
go away. The good news is, however, that CIGs are almost
exclusively above 5000` based on observational data available.
Additional good news is that showers will continue to slowly
diminish and the high overcast will continue to thin out. Freezing
level is only up to 3-4k ft, so any excursions into the overcast
will likely result in some airframe icing and there have been
multiple PIREPs today to verify and validate this. Reports of rime
or mixed icing range from 6k and up into the flight levels.

&&

.MARINE...Diminishing wind and sea trend continues through this
afternoon to become mostly calm in the inner channels. Expect
winds and seas to calm in the outer waters by Prince of Wales
Island through this evening, minimizing to around speeds of 10
knots or less as the low fills. A shortwave trough then moves into
the eastern gulf waters Wednesday morning. SE winds along and
ahead of the trough axis will maximize to 20 knots with seas up to
7 ft, localized from Dixon Entrance to Cape Edgecombe. Behind the
trough, S to SW winds up to 15 knots will replace the highest
wind speeds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Fritsch

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