481
FXUS61 KAKQ 231935
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
335 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches tonight from the west, slowly crossing
the area Monday. There is a chance for showers or storms this
evening and Monday. Drier weather returns later Monday into
Tuesday, but humidity and temperatures increase again for
Wednesday. Another cold front approaches the region later
Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated storms this evening into tonight could produce
  strong wind gusts.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms possible across far
  SE VA and NE NC on Monday.

As expected, isolated to scattered convection has fired across
portions of the area ahead of an approaching cold front. So far,
storms have been on the weaker side thanks to limited shear ~15
knots or less and MLCAPE of only 500-1000 J/kg. While a few
stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out this afternoon/evening,
widespread severe weather is generally not anticipated. The
other story this afternoon is the heat. Outside of any
convection, temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 90s
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat indices across
the region have generally been running around 100-105 F with
locally higher readings. Am not planning on making any changes
to the Heat Advisory at this time, but it is possible the
advisory may be allowed to end early.

Slightly higher shower and storm chances later this evening into
tonight as the front begins to push into the region. Still think
that the highest PoPs will generally be across far northern portions
of the area (MD Eastern Shore) tonight. Will have to watch the
northern Eastern Shore for a low-end severe weather threat with
slightly better forcing up that way. Another mild night tonight with
lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

The front slowly progresses SE across the region tonight through
tomorrow. However, it will slow or briefly stall over southeastern
portions of the area. Along and ahead of the front, temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s will
support plentiful sfc-based instability. In fact, a few models still
show pockets of 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE in far SE VA and NE NC by
late morning/early afternoon. While shear remains on the weak side
(~20 kt), this deep instability and continued high DCAPE could
support strong updrafts and damaging downbursts capable of sporadic
wind damage. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for svr wx across
the far SE. In terms of PoPs, have kept the highest (60-70%) over
coastal NE NC and along the Albemarle Sound. Further N and W into SE
VA, there remains some uncertainty on coverage and have 30-50% PoPs.
Most CAMs eventually depict rather aggressive upscale growth of
storms as they slowly push S/SE later in the afternoon. Heavy rain
and frequent lightning also will be likely in any storm. HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 3" in 3 hr are elevated in NE NC but
expect recent dry conditions to mitigate any widespread flash
flooding concerns. Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecast Monday
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points also drop off
into the upper 50s by the afternoon in central VA, so no concerns
here in terms of heat headlines. Also don`t think a heat advisory
will be needed across the SE as the aforementioned convection may
put an early end to the heat/humidity.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm with lower humidity on Tuesday.

- Hot conditions return for Wednesday with heat index values ranging
from 100 to 105 F.

The front drops south of the region Monday night as weak high
pressure settles into the region from the NW. Cooler and more
comfortable Monday night compared to the past few nights with low
temperatures dropping into the upper 50s across our NW counties with
generally low to mid 60s elsewhere (upper 60s to lower 70s at the
coast). Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures
will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will
only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become
southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into
the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The weather returns again for Wednesday with temperatures
rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area (possibly
100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat indices increase to 100-
105 F Wednesday afternoon and Heat Advisories may be needed. At this
time generally dry weather is expected for Wednesday, though an
isolated shower or storm may try to spill into our northern western
counties as another cold front approaches from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, another cold front approaches from
the NW. The 12z global model suite is still not enthusiastic about
widespread rainfall from this front (being cut off from most of the
deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture) and generally keeps a good portion
of the area dry. Probabilities of >0.50" from the NBM are 20-40%
across the area and highest in srn VA and NE NC. Will keep the
highest PoPs across the SE where the FROPA looks to occur with the
afternoon daytime heating window. Guidance has trended slightly
cooler with high temperatures on Thursday and Friday with highs
ranging from the 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland. Hotter
weather looks to return for next weekend as an upper-level dome of
high pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS.

The upcoming dry conditions will only exacerbate the recent dry
spell and it looks to set us up for what is considered a "flash
drought". More information on this can be found on CPC`s
Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or
drought.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front approaches the region from the northwest late this
afternoon through tonight, bringing increasing cloud cover and
increasing chances for mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through
the period outside of any convection. Gusty SSW winds this
afternoon through this evening, with gusts of 20-25 knots.
Slightly higher rain chances after 06z, especially across the
east and southeast. Some MVFR CIGs will be possible at the
eastern TAF sites as we approach sunrise. Scattered chances for
showers and storms return late Monday morning into Monday
afternoon, mainly focused along coastal terminals with some
localized sub-VFR conditions possible. Winds flip around to the
NW Monday morning into Monday afternoon in the wake of the
front.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected Monday
night through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect across all marine zones this afternoon through
tonight for elevated SW winds.

- Benign marine conditions expected Monday through most of
Wednesday. Additional SCAs possible Wednesday night.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk for the rest of today, then subsiding to
low risk to start the week.

High pressure that was previously anchored off the SE coast has
moved farther offshore today as a weak front approaches the local
area. A tightening pressure gradient between these features is
allowing for elevated winds this afternoon. Latest obs reflect SW
winds at 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt. Thus, SCAs are in effect
across all marine zones. Later this evening, winds will likely
increase a bit as the gradient tightens further and a 30-45kt LLJ
kicks in ahead of the front. Between sunset tonight and just before
sunrise tomorrow, winds will be 20-25kt (gusts to around 30kt) over
coastal waters and around 20kt in the bay and rivers. The front will
cross local waters tomorrow morning, turning winds to the NW. Winds
will be lighter at 5-10kt in southern waters and 10-15kt in northern
waters. Also, a sea breeze will likely form in the late afternoon
along the Virginia Beach/Northern OBX coast. NW winds persist into
Tuesday morning. High pressure passes overhead Tuesday, so winds
will be lighter and vary in direction through the day. Winds turn
back to the S Tuesday night as high pressure slides offshore and
increases to around 15kt. Additional SCAs may be needed Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning as another front approaches.

Seas are gradually increasing this afternoon with northern buoys
showing 4-5ft. Southern coastal waters still at 2-3ft as of latest
obs. Seas will increase tonight to 5-6ft (7ft out near 20nm) N of
Parramore Island and 3-5ft to the S. Seas should fall back fairly
quickly tomorrow, with 2-3ft expected by tomorrow evening. Seas will
stay at 2-3ft through at least Wednesday. Waves are starting out at
2-3ft this afternoon and will increase in the bay to 3-4ft
overnight. Waves will fall back to 1-2ft tomorrow and stay there
through the first half of the week.

Rips: A Moderate Rip Current risk persists today across all area
beaches for the rest of the afternoon. However, an increasing SSW
wind will likely lead to a longshore current and building nearshore
waves, especially for the northern beaches

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23):

- RIC: 76 (2010)
- ORF: 79 (2015)
- SBY: 75 (1925)
- ECG: 78 (2015)

Record high temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23):

- RIC: 101 (1988)
- ORF: 99 (2015)
- SBY: 99 (1988)
- ECG: 99 (2011)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/AM
CLIMATE...