Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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732 FXUS61 KALY 230740 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 340 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today and bring slightly cooler and less humid conditions along with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly focused across areas south and east of Albany. Sunny, dry and pleasant weather is expected on Friday. A few showers are possible over the weekend with more widespread rainfall expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front is beginning its eastward progression across western New York as seen by a wind shift to the west to northwest for areas west of Syracuse. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms are accompanying the front with the best activity (currently north of I-90) expected to move across portions of the Adirondacks over the next few hours. These showers are currently located within an area of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per the latest SPC mesoanalysis. This instability extends into the Adirondacks, so some rumbles of thunder will be possible, but activity should remain well below severe limits and gradually weaken toward the daybreak hours. Elsewhere, just a few isolated showers are possible prior to daybreak. The cold front will cross the region through the day today with the front positioned just to the south and east of the Capital Region by the late morning hours. Ahead of this front, some weak instability (up to 750 J/kg) and 30 kt of 0-6km shear may be present into the afternoon hours. CAMs suggest the best precipitation chances will be during the morning and early afternoon hours as a batch of rain and embedded thunder, currently located across western PA, crosses areas mainly south and east of Albany aided by passing upper- level energy. Forcing and additional precipitation chances wane during the afternoon hours as the front crosses. How unstable the environment gets this morning will determine whether any storms could become strong or possibly severe. Latest trends suggest the potential for severe storms across far southeastern areas is low, but will continue to monitor trends. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a marginal risk for severe weather for far southeastern areas. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected as slightly cooler and less humid air moves in behind the front with any morning clouds gradually giving way to more sunshine in the afternoon. Any isolated rain chances would likely occur during the first few hours of the morning as the front crosses. Highs will be mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s. High pressure builds into the region tonight with mostly clear and dry weather expected. Lows will dip back into the 50s for most areas with some upper 40s across the Adirondacks. There may be enough of a dewpoint depression spread to limit fog potential to just localized areas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure overhead will bring sunny and pleasant weather on Friday with lower humidity levels. Highs will top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s across most areas which is still about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Dry conditions continue Friday night with lows dipping back into the mid-40s to mid-50s. The high will begin to depart to the north and east on Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the south and west. We may be positioned between two separate upper-level shortwaves with one tracking to our south and another to our north and west. Still, some lift along and ahead of a passing surface warm front could bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day Saturday into Saturday night. Forcing weakens across the region on Sunday as weak ridging building in. However, a few isolated showers will remain possible during the day. Highs both days will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s with lows Saturday night in the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short wave ridging should keep dry conditions in place through Sunday evening. Will then mention low probs for showers overnight as a lead upper level disturbance approaches from the south/west. On Monday, a large upper level low and deepening surface cyclone will start to affect the region as it pushes eastward across the central Great Lakes. A surface frontal system ahead of the cyclone will move into our region, with showers/thunderstorms becoming likely Mon afternoon into the evening. It is unclear how much instability can develop, depending if our area can get into a warm sector. With model discrepancies in timing/track, it is possible the warm sector may not make it this far north with more of an occluded boundary moving through. Much too early for specific details, but this could result in some potentially stronger storms given sufficient instability and also locally heavy rainfall with PWAT anomalies forecast to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV. On Tuesday the surface front should be east of the region, although there are some guidance with slower timing. The main core of the upper low is forecast to track into SE Canada, while a broad upper level trough builds in across the Great Lakes and Northeast Tue through Wed. Depending on timing of short waves rotating through the mean trough, additional scattered to numerous showers are expected. Will mention slight chance of thunder during the diurnally favored times of afternoon to early evening, but overall instability looks limited at this time. Temperatures will cool down closer to normal levels by mid week as well with the trough settling in. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z Friday...A warm and relatively humid air mass for late May will remain in place across the region through tonight. A cold front will then pass through from west to east during the morning. A small cluster of SHRA/TSRA moving northeast from the southern Adirondacks and may hold together long enough to reach KGFL between 07z-08z. Will mention MVFR vsby with SHRA, but less confidence there will be TSRA. Will continue to monitor for possible brief TSRA. Widely scattered activity may get close to KALB, so will mention VCSH there. Once the showers and associated mid level clouds move through, there is a few hour window for some clearing before additional clouds from the cold front arrive towards daybreak. Fog is possible, especially at KGFL if any measurable rainfall occurs prior to the clearing. However, a slight breeze could offset surface moistening. Will mention a TEMPO for IFR conditions there between 08z-10z to account for this potential. Large temperature/dewpoint differences and/or a slight breeze should preclude fog formation elsewhere. After 12z today through this morning, scattered SHRA/TSRA with mainly MVFR conditions are possible around KPOU associated with the cold front passage. Some of this activity could get close to KPSF, but should generally remain to the south. VFR conditions will prevail after the cold front passage with gradual clearing through the rest of the afternoon. Winds will initially be south-southwest around 5 kt or less, then shift to the west and increase to 5-10 kt after the cold front passage this morning. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV