058
FXUS61 KALY 130525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
125 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy and humid conditions this morning. Warm and muggy
conditions continue through today with a break for dry weather
before a slow moving cold front ushers in additional showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Monday. Dangerous heat and
humidity then returns Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

- Isolated flash flooding is possible late Sunday P.M into
  Monday, especially if heavy rain persists over a given area as
  a cold front slowly tracks eastward. Cannot rule out an
  isolated strong thunderstorm, mainly in the mid-Hudson Valley
  and western New England on Monday.

Discussion:

As of 734 PM...Showers and thunderstorms have been starting to
weaken over the last hour or so, but a large cluster of showers
and embedded thunder continues across the Capital, Sacandaga and
Saratoga Regions, as well as across parts of the central
Adirondacks. Most of the rainfall rates are lighter than earlier
today, when rates were close to two inches per hour within the
heaviest burst of rain. Rainfall rates are now mainly under 0.50
inch for most areas (although some heavier burst close to 1" per
hour may still be occurring in the Saratoga area at the moment).
Activity will continue to wave with the loss of daytime heating. A
muggy night follows for tonight with lows in the 60s.

We start Sunday again with morning stratus clouds as southeast
flow advects the marine layer inland with a few isolated
showers still around before the pseudo weak warm front that has
been stalled overhead finally lifts northward by mid to late
morning. This will allow our region to finally dry out a bit as
we enter into the very warm/humid warm sector. For most of
eastern NY and especially western New England, the majority of
Sunday should be dry as the slow approaching cold front will be
displaced well to our west with morning clouds giving way to
sun. Guidance shows weak height falls in response to the
incoming trough holding off reaching the western Mohawk
Valley/western Adirondacks until closer to 21 - 00 UTC.
Therefore, most of Sunday should end up being dry but definitely
warm/humid as high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s
making it feel more like low to mid 90s. Afternoon sun and
boundary layer mixing should help reduce dew points a bit and
thereby lowering our chance to hit the 95F heat advisory
threshold.

The line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the
incoming front reaches our western Adirondack/western Mohawk
Valley and northern Catskills areas by early evening with a
conveyor belt of slightly stronger mid-level westerlies tracking
overhead as troughing spreads eastward. Deep layer shear
increasing to 20-25 KT coincide with moderate instability 1000-2000
J/kg can support storms growing upscale enough to result in
damaging wind gusts. SPC continues a "Marginal Risk" or level 1
of 5 across areas mainly west of the Hudson River where storms
should reach during the final hours of peak heating. However,
the overall weak forcing, shear and mid-level lapse rates will
limit the severe weather threat. Besides potential wind gusts,
heavy rain and localized flooding will need to be monitored as
PWATs remain high around 2" focused along the boundary and with
high FZ levels 12-13kft supporting efficient warm rain processes
and rather unidirectional weak flow through the column oriented
parallel to the front, periods of heavy rain could train or
repeatedly impact a given area. Rainfall rates could reach
1-2"/per hour a times. While the localized flooding potential is
higher Sunday evening/night compared to Saturday, the WPC Day 2
marginal ERO is still fine to message the isolated flash flood
potential as flash flood guidance is still rather high at
2-3"/3-hours. The line of rain and embedded storms continues to
very slowly track eastward overnight resulting in more
widespread rainfall and potential additional localized flooding
from heavy downpours.

By Monday, our cold front and line of showers/embedded storms
continues to slowly progress further eastward starting the day
around the Hudson River and gradually advancing eastward into
western New England by the afternoon. Heavy rain and localized
flooding remains a concern along the boundary where rain can
train/repeatedly impact as our environment from Sunday remains
largely the same. As discussed in the previous discussion, areas
in the mid- Hudson Valley, southern Berkshire, NW CT and the
I-84 corridor will some limited heating/breaks of sun ahead of
the boundary and with lapse rates steepening closer to 6C/km
before the front arrives, storms could grow upscale and
strengthen as they progress further south/east by the afternoon.
SPC does not currently have us outlooked but will continue to
watch trends and collaborate as needed. Otherwise, temperatures
will not be quite as hot as the previous few days given
increased cloud coverage and rain but it will remain very muggy.
Cloudy skies give way to afternoon sun for the areas mainly
north and west of the Capital District as the front slowly
clears and weak troughing and mid-level moisture slowly exit. It
will take until late Monday P.M into Monday evening for clouds
and rain from the front to clear across western New England but
the northwest wind shift should help usher in some minor relief
from the very humid air mass overnight. Overnight temperatures
dropping into the upper 50s in the higher terrain to mid-60s in
the valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Index values or "feels-Like" temperatures may reach the
  mid 90s to 100F in the valley areas Tuesday through Thursday.

Discussion:

The main story for the long term will be the dangerous heat as
broad ridging develops over the Eastern CONUS while a shortwave
in southern Canada slowly amplifies as it tracks into the Great
Lakes. This will induce stronger southwesterly flow and advect
an anomalously warm and humid air mass into the Northeast with
850 hPa isotherms reaching 1 to 2 standard deviations above
normal per the NAEFS. Sunny skies on Tuesday under a weak sfc
high will aid temperatures in reaching the upper 80s to low 90s
but dew points should be a bit lower in the wake of Monday`s
front plus stronger daytime boundary layer mixing so we are
confidence is lower if heat index values will meet/exceed 95F.
However, confidence increases Wednesday and Thursday, despite
increasing clouds and chances for showers/storms, as dew points
will likely return to very uncomfortable levels. The HeatRisk
values also reach "major" levels both days. Overnight lows will
not provide much relief as high humidity continues and
temperatures struggle to drop under clouds. Depending on the
exact timing of the cold front and upper level shortwave
Thursday/Friday, we should experience relief from the
heat/humidity by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thru 06Z/Mon...Low stratus and mist/fog continues to form at
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF this morning. MVFR stratus is already in
place at KPSF/KPOU with cigs 1-2.0 kft AGL. KALB/KGFL have VFR
cigs and KGFL has already had a few lapses to IFR mist.
Expecting widespread lower MVFR/IFR stratus to develop at all
the TAF sites 06Z-10Z/SUN with some patchy MVFR mist, though
KGFL may go to IFR/LIFR levels. The low MVFR/IFR will persist
until 14Z-16Z/SUN...as the IFR cigs will likely last the longest
at KPOU/KGFL/KPSF. Some MVFR cigs may linger until 18Z-20Z/SUN
at these sites. However, a return to VFR conditions is expected
for most of the afternoon with sct-bkn cigs 4-5 kft AGL.

Attention shifts to a prefrontal band of showers and possible
t-storms for after 00Z/MON. We included PROB30 groups 00Z to
06Z/Mon for some showers at KALB/KGFL with MVFR conditions.
KPSF and KPOU some VCSH groups were used for after 00Z/Mon with
developing lower stratus especially 02Z-06Z/MON. The winds will
be light and variable in direction at 5 KT or less this
morning, except south to southeast KALB at 5-7 KT. South to
southeast winds increase to 5-10 KT in the late morning through
the afternoon at all the TAF sites with a few gusts close to 20
KT at KALB.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
     NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Speciale/Frugis
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Wasula