102
FXUS61 KALY 111736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance will
bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to most
of eastern New York and western New England today with locally heavy
downpours and gusty winds.  A warm and humid air mass will be over
the region this weekend into next week with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon into the early evening on the
weekend. The showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on
Sunday ahead of a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across
  most of eastern NY and western New England, with some
  thunderstorms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

- Heat Advisories may be needed for some of the major valley
  locations on Sunday.

Discussion:

As of 233 AM EDT...

Patchy fog and stratus should burn off gradually in the mid to
late morning, as most of the forecast area will be in a warm
sector. The warm front is hung up near w-central New England. A
sfc trough or weak cold front will approach from the west
today. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will develop
in the late morning thru the afternoon in the muggy air mass
with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70F. The latest 00Z HREFS
has mean SBCAPEs in the 1000-1500+ J/kg range from the Capital
Region/Mohawk Valley/Saratoga Region south and east across the
forecast area today with 0-6 km bulk shear of 15-25 KT. PWATs
will be in the 1.25-1.75" range again. Some loosely organized
multi-cells may develop based on the latest 3-km
HRRR/NAMnest/ARW-WRF this afternoon into tonight with isolated
damaging winds from pcpn loading and downbursts the main threat
from any thunderstorms. The mid level lapse rates remain weak.
An isolated flash flood can not be ruled out with relatively
weak steering flow and hourly rainfall rates 1-2"/hr. Best
coverage looks to be from the Capital Region, northern Catskills
and southern VT south and east. Max Temps will about 5 degrees
or so above normal with 85-90F readings in the valleys, and
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s over the terrain. Heat indices will
be mainly below 95F, as few isolated locations will nick the mid
90s in the Hudson River Valley. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall
were used in the text/gridded products. SPC dropped the Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms.

The isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
diminish tonight with some patchy fog developing especially,
where recent rainfall occurs. The frontal boundary may weaken
and get hung up over the region in the early to mid morning for
some redeveloping showers and isolated thunderstorms especially
from Albany southwest. It will be muggy with lows in the 60s to
around 70F.

Mid an upper level heights increase over the Northeast and
southeast Canada on Saturday. A diffuse frontal boundary and
weak mid level impulse will focus some afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The NBM had likely and categorical
PoPs. We collaborated with neighboring WFOs and lowered into the
chance category. The 0-6 km shear looks weak at less than 20
KT. PWATs are above normal with mean SBCAPES in the 1000-2000
J/kg range based on the HREFS. A few strong storms may develop
from the Capital Region south and west, but with weak shear
maybe a rogue severe threat at best. Highs will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 80s
in the valleys in the humid air mass. Heat indices will be
mainly below 95F in the valleys once again.

Another sticky night is expected Saturday night with any
scattered showers/thunderstorms diminishing with the loss of the
diurnal heating, as lows will be in the mid 60s to about 70F
with mid and upper level ridging building in briefly.

The weekend will close with a prefrontal trough and a cold front
increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday pm into the evening. Likely and categorical PoPs were
used west of Lake George and the Hudson River Valley Sunday pm
with chance values along and to the east. The timing of the
prefrontal trough and front varies on the guidance. The greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms may be more towards
Sunday night. It is nebulous how much severe threat will be
possible, as locations west of the Hudson Valley may have
moderate instability with increasing shear. Some heat indices in
the mid 90s may warrant a Heat Advisory on Sunday, if
confidence increases. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F will
be common below 1000 ft in elevation and upper 70s to mid 80s
above that elevation. The parallel flow aloft with the front may
allow for some heavy rain Sunday night. WPC continues a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for an isolated flash flood
for most of the area on Sunday, as well as for Saturday. Lows
will be in the 60s to 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Advisories may be needed for some of the valley areas
  Wed-Thu for dangerous heat indices in the mid 90s to around
  100F.

Discussion:

The extended forecast period remains warm and humid with above
normal temps. The weak cold front moves across the region with
some showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Limited
heating may preclude much of a severe threat. Max temps may be
held down near to slightly below normal values on Monday due to
clouds and pcpn. Mid 70s to mid 80s will be common for highs.
The showers/t-storms end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon into the early evening with a drying trend as high
pressure builds in. A minor relief in the humidity will occur
with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

Mid and upper level ridging quickly builds in from the south
and west Tue into Wed, as the sfc anticyclone will be near the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley by the mid week. Mainly dry conditions
are expected Tuesday outside of an isolated shower/thunderstorm
south of the Capital Region. The subsidence from the ridge will
yield highs in the 80s to near 90F on Tue. The heat and
humidity builds back in with the Bermuda High in control
midweek. Above normal temps will continue with heat indices due
to combination of mid 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and temps in
the upper 80s to lower 90s may reach in the mid 90s to lower
100s in the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. Heat Advisories may be
needed later in time. Isolated to widely scattered diurnally
driven showers/thunderstorms may be possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. Some
scattered showers are starting to develop and some pulse showers
or t-storms are possible through the early evening hours. Have
included a PROB30 for KALB and KPSF based off the latest CAMs,
as a brief shower or possibly a t-storm could impact these
sites. Any shower or t-storm would be rather brief, but could
contain heavy rainfall, lowering visibility to IFR/MVFR range
for a short time. While severe storms aren`t anticipated, winds
could be gusty within any shower or t-storm as well. Otherwise,
it will stay VFR with just sct cigs around 4-6 kft and southerly
winds around 5 to 10 kts.

Any shower or t-storm will dissipate by evening, allowing for
dry conditions overnight. Initially, it will be VFR with a
mostly clear sky and just some passing cirrus. However, some
late night stratus (and possibly some fog) will develop for the
late night hours and towards daybreak on Saturday for all sites.
This will likely result in MVFR conditions, although brief IFR
cannot be ruled out.  Winds will be light to calm overnight.

Once again stratus dissipates on Saturday morning (probably by
the mid-morning hours), VFR conditions will return for all sites
with a mostly sunny sky and just few-sct cumulus clouds. Some
passing pulse-like afternoon showers or t-storms can`t be ruled
out again on Saturday afternoon. South to southwest winds will
be around 5 kts on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Frugis