044
FXUS64 KAMA 051728
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Southerly to southwesterly winds prevail across the Panhandles
this afternoon with mid 50s to lower 60s dew points across the
central and east. The southerly winds combined with the higher
moisture and less WAA at H850 than yesterday is leading to
temperatures around 4 to 8 degrees cooler at noon when compared to
yesterday at this time. With that being said, highs today have
been decreased slightly based on these observational trends.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A 591 decimeter high continues to setup over the southwest CONUS.
Given the projected placement of the ridge and a corresponding
low pressure system over the Great Lake Region, our CWA may be
under the influence of northwest flow from the leeside of the
Rocky Mountains starting Thursday.

Wednesday, stable air settles in and a calm forecast is projected
through the 24 hour period. 850 mb temperatures from short term
guidance suggest that highs today will range in the low to mid
90`s; however, based off of the temperatures met in the southern
Texas Panhandle yesterday the mid level values may be slightly
under done. Slight changes have been made for areas near the
Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon, and upper 90`s are
forecast for those zones today. The canyon itself may see a high
in the lower 100`s, but a Heat Advisory is not suspect to
necessitation at this time.

Thursday, surface winds are forecast to veer from south to north
in the late morning hours as a frontal boundary moves in. Storms
may form ahead of the front by the afternoon and evening hours.
With moisture return limited in the low and mid levels alongside
poor wind shear aloft due to the close proximity to the upper
high, concerns for storms to pulse to severe are low. Still, a
strong core or two cannot be ruled out and may pose a threat for
damaging winds and some hail. The storm mode will also favor
multicellular clusters with the aforementioned weak wind profiles.
Highs Thursday afternoon are still subject to change, since it
will be highly dependent on the position of the front and
afternoon convection. If the slower and drier solution occurs,
highs in the lower 100`s for the central and southern Texas
Panhandle are possible.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For Friday through Tuesday, upper level ridging prevails just to
the west over the western states while corresponding upper level
troffing evolves across the eastern states. This places our forecast
area in some semblance of northwest flow aloft, which is generally
a favorable pattern for steering storms eastward and southeastward
from the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New
Mexico. While medium range models are in basic agreement on the
overall pattern, they, along with ensemble members, differ some
on location of the ridge axis relative to the southern high plains
as well as how long the pattern lasts before potentially changing
again. Given the general predicted pattern, the threat for showers
and thunderstorms will continue across the OK and TX Panhandles
from Friday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are also
anticipated Friday and Saturday before a cold front tracks across
the area Saturday afternoon and evening, leading to cooler
temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Looking further ahead, medium
range models and associated ensemble members suggest the pattern
may become progressive just beyond Tuesday such that the upper
level ridge of high pressure will likely move eastward over the
plains states while an upper level trof of low pressure tracks
into the western states by the middle part of next week. If this
occurs, above normal temperatures may return while rain chances
diminish across the forecast area during that time frame. NBM
temperatures and pops fit the above scenario based on the overall
progged synoptic pattern and were included in all periods of the
long term forecast with little to no modifications to the grids.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Winds will mainly
be out of the south around 10 to 15 kts before becoming
southwesterly. A weak front will begin moving across the
Panhandles around 12z or after and winds will gradually shift to
out of the north at KDHT/KGUY. The front will likely slow down and
may not make it through KAMA until after 18z.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  97  65  99 /   0  20  30  10
Beaver OK                  66  90  63  99 /   0  20  20  20
Boise City OK              62  89  60  98 /  10  10  20  20
Borger TX                  70 100  66 102 /   0  20  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              69 100  65 103 /   0  20  30  10
Canyon TX                  67  98  65  99 /   0  20  30  10
Clarendon TX               66  97  66  96 /   0  20  30  10
Dalhart TX                 64  94  61 100 /   0  10  30  10
Guymon OK                  64  90  61  99 /  10  10  20  10
Hereford TX                67 100  67 101 /   0  20  30  10
Lipscomb TX                68  92  65  97 /  10  10  20  20
Pampa TX                   68  95  65  97 /   0  20  30  10
Shamrock TX                66  97  66  96 /   0  10  30  10
Wellington TX              66  99  68  98 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05