853
FXUS64 KAMA 031751
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Another kink in the upper level trough will descend southward
into our eastern zones today. Afterwards, our active pattern takes
a bit of a break as heights start to rise on Tuesday and a ridge
in the upper levels begins to develop.

The rest of tonight... A southeastward propagating MCS is exiting
southwest Kansas and entering into portions of northwest
Oklahoma, but the western flank of the system looks to also impact
the far northeastern counties of our CWA. The potential for this
system to be severe is still on the table tonight, as the low
level jet is still quite strong in the area. Our primary hazard of
concern with this complex would be strong winds, but heavy
rainfall cannot be excluded. Meanwhile further to the south, fog
has settled in and is slowly expanding across the southeastern
Texas Panhandle. The fog appears to be generally patchy and dense
in some areas. In very isolated locations, this may affect travel
on the roads. By sunrise conditions area expected to improve.

Later on today, higher dewpoints are expected to hold in the
eastern Panhandles. Even up to 70 degrees according to some of the
guidance. Given the time of year, high CAPE values will be
present. However, the forcing mechanism for thunderstorms will be
quite weak. Our surface low is forecast to be on top of the
Panhandles this afternoon, and a dryline will not be active until
the evening and overnight hours were the gradient will finally
sharpen. Thunderstorms should still be able to hit convective
temperatures and pulse up during peak diurnal heating, but they
could still run into some inhibition. Especially in areas were
clouds are slower to erode throughout the morning. If thunderstorms
are able to overcome these limiting factors, (as indicated by
some of the latest 00Z and 06Z CAMs suggest), then they could
quickly become severe. Modest 0-6 km bulk shear between 30-40 kts
and steep 8-9 C/km lapse rates should allow for discrete storms
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out particularly
in the southeast Texas Panhandle where better low level wind shear
and lower LCL heights should be present. This activity would
initiate in the late afternoon and quickly move east. By the night
time hours, the initial storms will have moved into western
Oklahoma but additional development cannot be ruled out at this
time as the dryline will be retreating west and favorable
conditions are in place for elevated storms.

Tuesday... As the ridge prepares to build back in, a quieter
forecast is expected. With 90`s area wide and mostly sunny skies.
Guidance still diverges somewhat on how hot we will become, and if
100`s should be introduced to areas other than the Palo Duro
Canyon. Therefore, we have left NBM temperatures as is until a
better consensus is met.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, generally dry weather
is foreseen as upper level ridging prevails over the area. Above
normal temperatures are anticipated across the region most periods
from Wednesday through Sunday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms
is forecast to return to the OK and TX Panhandles Thursday night
through Sunday as medium range deterministic models and corresponding
ensembles continue to suggest that some semblance of northwest
flow aloft may develop. NBM temperatures and pops look reasonable
based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were included in
all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions have returned to all sites and should remain so
throughout the period. Winds will be turning around the dial at
generally 5-15 kts as a surface low drops south and a weak cold
front moves in Tuesday morning, bringing slightly higher gusts.
Some low clouds and fog may develop over the eastern Panhandles
once again tomorrow morning, but confidence in any ceilings making
it to the terminals is very low.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  96  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  63  91  61  96 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              59  90  58  93 /   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  65  97  63  98 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  97  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  61  97  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               61  97  65  92 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 58  92  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  90  59  96 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                61  98  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                64  94  64  96 /  20  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   63  94  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                63  97  66  94 /  20  10  10   0
Wellington TX              63  99  67  95 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38