Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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514 FXUS64 KAMA 021723 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 It appears one more day of thunderstorm development is in the offing for the OK and TX Panhandles. Quasi-zonal flow will prevail today and tonight with another weak upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall flow pattern expected to track across the southern high plains later this afternoon and evening. A surface dryline is not likely to make much eastward progress today, perhaps migrating into the far western zones from eastern New Mexico by mid to late afternoon. After morning showers and thunderstorms exits the eastern zones or dissipates altogether and low cloud cover erodes, strong daytime heating should commence. Plenty of moisture will remain in place. The combination of an unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates resulting from anticipated daytime heating should assist in the development of showers and thunderstorms just east of the dryline later this afternoon, with the precipitation moving eastward through the evening hours. Given favorable parameters, some storms will have the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out since some shear will be present. The threat for thunderstorms will diminish late tonight with the loss of daytime heating and the axis of the minor upper level shortwave trof having moved east of the region. There is a very low probability of isolated thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening across the far eastern zones near the OK state line. However, the atmosphere may prove to be more hostile as heights and mid level temperatures rise some, introducing some idea of a mid level capping inversion. Due to uncertainty and low confidence whether or not any showers or storms will develop in the far eastern sections, have kept pops below mentionable at this time. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated across the region Monday and Monday night. 02 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For Tuesday through Thursday, generally dry weather is foreseen as heights rise further. It appears the warmest day of the extended forecast periods will likely be on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures near or possibly exceeding 100 degrees across mainly parts of the southern Texas Panhandle, including Palo Duro Canyon State Park where highs may approach Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. The threat for showers and thunderstorms may return to the region Thursday night through Saturday as medium range deterministic models and corresponding ensembles hint that some semblance of northwest flow aloft may develop. NBM temperatures and pops are reasonable based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were included in all periods of the long term forecast. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 This afternoon and evening will see another round of rain showers and thunderstorms pass across the panhandles from W to E. All terminals have a low chance to be impacted by these during the mid to late afternoon. A few of the storms can become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Winds will be gusty from the south through the afternoon and evening before becoming weaker during the overnight hours. Monday will see a boundary pass through the panhandles during the mid morning shifting the winds at least briefly to the NW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 92 63 95 61 / 20 20 0 0 Beaver OK 93 64 93 63 / 20 30 10 10 Boise City OK 94 56 92 58 / 20 10 10 0 Borger TX 96 66 98 64 / 20 30 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 97 62 98 60 / 20 10 0 0 Canyon TX 92 62 95 58 / 20 20 0 0 Clarendon TX 88 63 93 62 / 20 40 10 10 Dalhart TX 94 56 94 55 / 20 10 10 0 Guymon OK 94 60 93 59 / 20 20 10 0 Hereford TX 95 61 98 59 / 20 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 91 65 94 64 / 30 30 10 10 Pampa TX 90 64 95 63 / 30 30 10 10 Shamrock TX 89 64 93 62 / 30 40 10 10 Wellington TX 89 65 96 64 / 20 40 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...98