983
FXUS64 KAMA 070853
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
353 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The upper level ridge continues it`s track to the southeast,
thanks to support from the upper trough displacing the high
further south. Thunderstorm chances still continue each day, but
we await our next cold front before we find relief from our high
temperatures.

Today, high temperatures will reach the lower 100`s across the
CWA. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Palo Duro Canyon
regarding temperatures at or above 105 degrees for extended
periods of the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances will
mostly be confined to the northern zones for the late afternoon
and overnight time frame, a few of which could become strong and
severe. Given the larger temperature/dewpoint spread forecasted
for tomorrow, CAPE values will not be overly impressive
(1,000-2,000 J/kg), but enough is there to support some organized
storms. There should also be better wind profiles compared to
yesterday, perhaps between 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Lapse
rates should also be extremely high, approaching 9.5 C/km rates in
the mid levels. Similar to yesterday, damaging winds and some
large hail are the primary threats, with a downburst or two also
remaining in the realm of possibility given high LCL heights and
DCAPE values. This activity will continue into the night, and
storms should lose their severe potential as day time heating
ends. The southern extend of the storm activity is still in
question, as models diverge on where the system falls apart after
they become outflow dominant. Current PoPs will keep Amarillo and
parts surrounding out of the expected activity tonight, but there
is still a low chance the system holds together long enough to
travel south of the I-40 corridor.

Tomorrow, very similar dynamics in the synoptic levels will
retain most of the hazards and concerns mentioned previously.
Another surge of 100 degree temperatures and thunderstorms in the
late evening and overnight hours, some of which could also become
severe. It is not until Sunday where we see more drastic mesoscale
changes, (and some relief from the heat), as a cold front is
expected to impact the High Plains by then.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Sunday will see continued active weather even after the passage of
a cold front late on Saturday. Moisture will still sit across the
panhandles that will continue to act as the fuel for the daily
rain showers and thunderstorms. Post cold front the dynamics seem
to decrease across the panhandles which should lead to a lower
chance for organized severe weather. This doesn`t mean there wont
be any severe weather just that it will be more pulse storm vs
supercells. Moisture amounts and slow steering flows will allow
for storms with high rain rates to form a sit for a long time over
a single spot so flash flooding is a concern come this Sunday.
Temperatures on Sunday will be much cooler than Saturday with
highs falling to the 70s and 80s. Monday will see continued rain
and even thunderstorm activity. The big change will be that there
is better odds than not that a secondary cold front or surge of
cold air will pass across the panhandles. This will make it more
likely that the rain becomes a steady stratiform rain of moderate
intensity. Temperatures should cool even more with 70s across the
panhandles and a small chance of 60s being seen for highs. Tuesday
and Wednesday the ridge has better odds than not to push back
across the southern plains becoming the more established feature
for the panhandles. This should move most of the moisture out of
the panhandles leading to a small period of dry weather. Under
the ridge the temperatures are likely to see a warming trend with
highs returning to the 90s by Wednesday. Thursday should see the
ridge remain across the region with the highs reaching there peak
for the latter portions of the week with highs back in the 100s.
Some moisture moving back across the panhandles has a low chance
of sparking of some high based rain showers and thunderstorms.
Friday the ridge seems to be weakening as another pattern change
may occur. For weather purposes Friday should mirror Thursday
just slight cooler with most places peaking in the upper 90s.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Thunderstorms may be present this time for DHT and GUY tomorrow
afternoon through the evening. A PROB30 group has been added to
reflect these potential conditions. AMA has been omitted for now,
as thunderstorms appear less likely to hold together further
south. That is still subject to chance after new data arrives for
reassessment tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the period. Strong winds from the southwest
will occur at all sites this afternoon. Sustained winds could
reach up to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts at times.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               101  73 101  64 /   0  10  10  40
Beaver OK                 103  70  95  62 /  10  40  10  60
Boise City OK             101  63  92  59 /  30  20  30  60
Borger TX                 104  75 104  65 /   0  20  10  50
Boys Ranch TX             104  72 103  65 /   0  20  10  50
Canyon TX                  99  72 101  65 /   0  10  10  40
Clarendon TX               98  73 100  66 /   0   0  10  30
Dalhart TX                102  65  97  61 /  10  40  20  50
Guymon OK                 103  66  95  61 /  20  30  10  60
Hereford TX               101  71 102  65 /   0  10  10  40
Lipscomb TX                99  72 100  65 /  10  30  10  50
Pampa TX                  100  74 100  64 /   0  20  10  50
Shamrock TX                99  73 100  67 /   0  10   0  30
Wellington TX             100  73 102  70 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...55