Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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395 FXUS63 KAPX 280151 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 951 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool temperatures tonight. - Rain/storms Friday night into Saturday; Watching potential for stronger storms Saturday. - Periods of unsettled weather next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure center is in the process of pushing east of Michigan late this evening. Meanwhile...a complex area of low pressure continues to develop well upstream to the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of increasing mid/high level moisture/clouds has reached our CWA...and expect mid/high clouds will continue to increase and thicken thru the overnight hours. Near term models still show increasing precip chances will hold off until Friday afternoon...so still expect a dry night despite increasing clouds. Overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridging continues to build across the Plains and upper Midwest as troughing slides towards the northeast. Surface high pressure building overhead will eventually track east out of the region by Friday as a shortwave trough tracks towards the Great Lakes Region for the weekend. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: Another beautiful night is in store for Northern Michigan with nighttime lows expected to be in the low 50s for interior locations, and in the mid 50s for coastal locations. Cloud coverage will increase as the night goes on in response to the aformentioned shortwave trough. North winds will shift Southeast after midnight and increase through the day Friday with winds 5 to 10 mph and gusts at times up to 15 to 20 mph. Rain showers will become likely late Friday evening/ night as widespread rain moves west to east across the forecast area into the weekend. Temperatures on Friday will be warmer with southerly winds bringing warmer air into the region, making highs in the low to mid 70s for Northern lower and high 60s across the EUP. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis over the western US...with some influence on our weather this morning, allowing for a 1018mb surface high over WI. Pesky trough axis from the last couple days finally moving on over...hanging out in New England attm...with primarily dry, cool advection from the north in its wake beneath better subsidence...though some weak height falls still noted overhead attm. Primary activity across the CONUS well to our south/southeast, with a lingering BCZ trapping the bulk of the better moisture down there...though next item on the agenda is a decent occluded system moving across western North America. Warm front stretching down into the lee of the Rockies along the nose of a 30-40kt LLJ; do see an uptick in pwats across the central Plains with this, and some better lapse rates aloft in its wake over the higher terrain. Ridge axis to continue to slip overhead into Friday, with increasing warm advection expected through the day Friday into Friday evening...when rain chances should really start to ramp up. System moves in rather quickly Friday night, but ends up being somewhat slower to leave for Saturday and beyond. Still...after an initial round of rain/storms in the morning, think a second round of showery activity should slip in during the late afternoon/evening from the northwest as a reinforcing punch of PV slips in. Cooler in the wake of this Sunday as high pressure again attempts to move in...and may be briefly successful...though there are already signals for a return to troughiness for the mid-to-latter half of the upcoming week (unfortunately). Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain/storms Friday night into Saturday...Still looking at warm advection rain with embedded thunder moving in from the west late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Though we do have some decent deep-layer shear potential...think we will be lacking instability overall, at least initially. However...think there is still a good shot at another round of soaking rains, especially along and west of I-75 and across the EUP, where rain is most likely to move in first late Friday. Think there could be a more southerly round of activity Friday that could potentially suck some of the better moisture away from our activity Friday evening/night...but still think we will be looking at some rain, with the primary focus of heavier rain over the EUP closer to the better forcing with the warm front aloft (most likely to set up over Canada). Watching potential for stronger storms Saturday...Going into Saturday morning...we should be firmly ensconced in the warm sector with abundant moisture hanging on from Friday...a generally favorable environment with a cold front moving into the region. Additionally, still have concerns that stability as a whole will be weakening as steeper lapse rates aloft advect in with time going into Saturday morning. Still watching for a pesky low/mid-layer (between 925 and 800mb-ish) of more stable air, which could certainly put a cap on development of any deeper activity, particularly if it is stronger and forcing is a bit on the weaker side. For now, however...still have concerns for Saturday, perhaps even as early as Saturday morning...before lower-levels stabilize. It again appears this could be one of those situations where the low- level moisture actually aids in destabilization, such that even a few degrees of warmth (from even a scattered/broken cloud deck) could break open the cap and tap into the less stable air aloft...particularly with some potential for increased forcing from the incoming SW-NE oriented front and attendant PV niblet aloft (though the bulk of the forcing from this could end up focusing over the EUP more than NLP). Deep layer shear appears best along and behind the front, which could preclude better storm organization...particularly with potential for better destabilization and low-level shear over NE Lower...but will certainly be something to keep an eye on as we go into one of the more active summer weekends for northern Michigan. Primary threat(s) could end up being gusty winds and/or hail, given the potential for mid-level dry air to enhance cold pool development...in addition to the potential for steeper lapse rates aloft. Still...with the low- level moisture around, as well as knowing we`ll be in the warm sector of this system...can`t help but wonder about the potential for a rogue spin-up if this idea does end up coming to fruition. Primary focus for all of this should be during the early part of the day across northern Lower, with less certainty on how things will evolve with the secondary trough swinging in during the afternoon. Periods of Unsettled Weather Next Week...While it`s still a ways out, and a lot could change between now and then, there are some decent signals for increased southwesterly flow into the Upper Midwest going into early/mid-week next week. Will have to keep an eye on this as we approach the upcoming holiday week/extended holiday weekend...given that this setup suggests potential for periods of active weather that could put a damper on people`s plans. Not saying right now that it will totally be a washout, because there are still a lot of details to sort out...but will be something to monitor, particularly for any outdoor/remote-outdoor plans. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure center will continue to push east of Michigan tonight. Meanwhile...developing low pressure over the Northern Plains will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Mid/high level moisture/clouds will steadily increase from west to east tonight into Friday morning...with chances of showers increasing across Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan Friday afternoon. Light/variable surface winds tonight will become southerly and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on Friday with some higher gusts expected. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...MLR