Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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996 FXUS63 KAPX 011452 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1052 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain spreads across northern Michigan Tuesday afternoon... tapering off Wednesday morning with heavy rainfall possible (though flood issues unlikely). - Fourth of July holiday continues to look OK with precipitation chances impinging from the west and south. - More rain arrives Friday...probably lingers into Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Clear skies across northern Michigan as high pressure remains in control. High pressure begins to shift to the east tonight, with increasing clouds and winds shifting to the south. Generally quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures during this time. Moisture will increase with showery activity likely Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Cool high pressure centered between TVC and GRB. The high will be overhead today, then head east tonight. Aloft, troffing early this morning will be replaced by 500mb ridging tonight. Forecast: Quiet in this short term period. Deeply dry air and building heights aloft will lead to little cloud cover today. As we head toward this evening, some high clouds could reach parts of nw lower MI. As return flow increases here and especially to our w tonight, convection is expected to make eastward progress across the upper MS Valley and into the western lakes. This eastward progress looks to be slower than earlier forecast. Though clouds will increase here tonight, precip chances will remain to our west. Temps will be warmer both today and tonight. Max temps today mid-upper 70s for most. Lows tonight in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Pattern Forecast: Split North American pattern with a wavy southern branch dominating the CONUS. Short wave ridge axis crossing Michigan today/tonight will be over Quebec/lower Great Lakes Tuesday ahead of a short wave trough moving through the Prairie provinces and the Plains states. Height falls associated with this feature will arrive over the region Tuesday night/Wednesday...with the main jet axis lying west-east over the upper Lakes Thursday along confluence axis between northern and southern streams which are forecast to meet up in the vicinity of Lake Superior. Another short wave trough is forecast to roll across the Midwest/Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. 1027mb high pressure centered over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes early this morning...will cross Michigan today and end up over New England/mid Atlantic Tuesday morning with southerly return flow into the upper Lakes. Short wave trough crossing the upper Midwest/Great Lakes will push a cold front across Michigan Wednesday. What remains of this boundary will likely get hung up across the Ohio Valley Thursday...then lift north across Lower Michigan as a warm front Friday. Perhaps some cooler west/northwest boundary layer flow in the low`s wake for Saturday. Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain spreads across northern Michigan Tuesday afternoon...tapering off Wednesday morning with heavy rainfall possible (though flood issues unlikely): Clouds will thicken and lower from west to east Tuesday morning as deeper moisture spreads into the upper Great Lakes from the southwest. Low levels are dry to start however with a continued anticyclonic trajectory around the high over New England. So will probably start out as a bit of a virga storm... and thus have trended precipitation timing slower with minimal PoPs east of a PZQ-HTL line until Tuesday evening. Moisture transport into northern Michigan will be maximized Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...precipitable water approaching 2 inches and indications of a deep warm cloud layer (~4km) promoting warm rain collision-coalescence processes. Potential is there for a stripe of 1.00+ inch QPF north of a CAD-APN by the time all is said and done Wednesday morning...may be some afternoon convective development over eastern Upper with passage of primary PV anomaly and some lake breeze component to the surface winds. Having said that...current flooding potential looks minimal unless precipitation efficiency goes through the roof. Probabilistic river forecasts not indicating a big response (perhaps due to the drawn out nature of the event)...most susceptible areas right now would be north of the M-72 corridor that saw the greatest impact from the 21-23 June rainfall event (where 6 hour flash flood guidance is less than 2 inches in a few spots). New Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to paint eastern Upper/Tip of the Mitt/northwest Lower in the Marginal Risk which continues to look quite reasonable. Fourth of July holiday continues to look OK with precipitation chances impinging from the west and south: Still pushing the optimistic narrative for the Fourth of July...frontal boundary well south of the area and a little bubble of high pressure in the vicinity. Seasonable temperatures in the 70s-lower 80s with not a lot of wind. More rain arrives Friday...probably lingers into Saturday: Approaching short wave trough will ramp up rain possibilities once again on Friday...some hints of deformation/wrap-around moisture keeping some threat for showers going into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 High pressure will be overhead today, before heading east tonight. VFR expected. Little in the way of clouds today, before increasing high clouds tonight. Could be a touch of fog late tonight (MBL briefly had vsby restrictions earlier this morning), but for now it isn`t worth a mention. Light winds, with onshore lake breezes this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JLD SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...JZ