Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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950 FXUS61 KBGM 261750 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 150 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will continue to diminish in coverage through the afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible through early evening across Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills. Our next system moves in late tonight into Monday with locally heavy rain and a chance for thunderstorms. Additional scattered showers will linger through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 155 PM Update... No major changes other than to work in trends with cloud cover, which should continue to mix-out this afternoon. Temperatures appear to be on track. 355 AM Update... A foggy start to the day, but conditions will improve later this morning with clearing skies. Today will be mostly dry, however a stationary front draped across Wyoming Valley - Poconos to Catskills will be the focus for some isolated showers or thunderstorm late this afternoon and this evening. The rest of the area though will be mostly sunny with a lot of dry air mixing down from above the boundary layer. Clouds will increase overnight, as a warm front slides northward across the region. Deep southwesterly return flow will increase PWATs to over 1.5", which is above the 95th percentile for this time of year. Rain chances will start to bump up towards dawn Monday, especially Twin Tiers southward as that warm front moving into the region. Widespread rain showers are expected through the day Monday, but heaviest rainfall will likely hold off until late in the day. Forecast soundings on Monday show a fairly deep warm cloud depth above 10K feet and as we get into the later part of the day, long skinny CAPE is present through this deep warm cloud layer, especially in NE PA. Any showers and thunderstorms that do kick off in the afternoon will have intense rainfall rates. Training and backbuilding cells will be possible late in the day and into Monday night (past this period) as a quasi-stationary front should remain over this region. Short Corfidi vectors Monday evening shows back building cells will be favorable. At this time, we will hold off from issuing a flood watch, however, will continue to highlight the flash flooding threat in the HWO and a watch may be needed at a later time. WPC has also highlighted a slight risk for flash flooding in NE PA and into the Catskills and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 405 AM Update... As the front associated with our storm system on Monday pushes through our eastern areas later in the evening, showers and thunderstorms will be tapering off overnight as cooler, drier air filters in in its wake. Lows Monday night will range from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. A broad upper level trough will push east Tuesday and settle in over the region through midweek with several embedded shortwaves expected to rotate through. This will lead to additional shower chances Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be primarily diurnally driven. There has been an uptick in instability on Tuesday and strong shear appears to be in place, so if there`s any thunder, that seems to be the better day. Highs Tuesday are expected to be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s, then it trends cooler Wednesday with a more persistent northwest flow in place with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows will fall into the low and mid 50s Tuesday night, then drop well into the 40s for much of the area Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 405 AM Update... Despite the trough remaining overhead Thursday, there looks to be a drier push of air moving over the region both at the low and mid levels and this would help limit shower activity this day. The cool, northwest flow will again lead to highs in the 60s for Thursday with lows in the 40s at night. An uptick in moisture on Friday can lead to isolated showers, then the upper trough finally looks to push off to the east allowing for ridging to develop next weekend. This would lead to the return of drier and warmer conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ceilings have mostly mixed out across the area, or risen above VFR levels, and will continue to do so through the afternoon. High and mid clouds will increase tonight, followed by lower clouds as showers return to the area after about 09Z. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible as precip returns, but fairly low probability at any given point. Shower coverage will likely diminish Monday morning, only to return again towards midday or early afternoon, with heavier downpours and thunder becoming increasingly likely after the current TAF period ends. Outlook... Monday afternoon and night...Restrictions likely with locally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms expected. Tuesday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MPH NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...MPK/MPH