992
FXUS61 KBGM 250603
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm frontal boundary will move into the region tonight and
be followed by a weak cold front on Thursday. Several rounds of
showers will occur with these fronts. High pressure then builds
back into the region later in the week with the remnants of
Helene staying to our south into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM Update...
No major changes to the forecast, with showers mostly lifting
north of the area for now. A few spot showers will continue to
be possible through early morning, but coverage will be very
low.

945 PM Update...

While it seemed like showers were going to become a bit more
widespread this evening, the CAMs actually had the right idea
with coverage mainly in north-central NY at this time. Due to
this, PoPs were updated once again with a little more weight
given to the CAMs. These changes were limited to the next 3 to 4
hours as PoPs late tonight look fine for now, but may need to be
touched up later. With no instability present and little
expected until early tomorrow morning at the earliest, thunder
was also removed from the forecast. Elevated instability will
increase beginning around 09z (5am local time) but is even
limited then.

620 PM Update...

Showers continue to move eastward into the region. These light
showers are mainly impacting portions of CNY currently but some
scattered showers are beginning to move into NEPA. PoPs were
updated based on current radar and updated short-range guidance.
Manual adjustments were also made to not stray too far from the
previous forecast. The rest of the forecast was doing fairly
well, though some minor adjustments were made to temps and winds
to better match the latest observations.

Previous Discussion...
Clouds and some drizzle have kept temperatures from rising too
much across the region today. Would expect only a slow dropoff
tonight with the temperatures into the 50`s given a modest 40
knot or so LLJ. Enough lift and moisture look to be present for
several rounds of showers as well. A few rumbles of thunder are
possible given some elevated instability in place. A few more
rounds of showers are likely through a good portion of Thursday.
However, rainfall rates do not look heavy at times with quite a
few breaks as well. QPF looks to be around a half inch or less.


Once again clouds should keep the temperatures from rising
higher than the 60`s with lows only a few degrees cooler as a
result of the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update:

A frontal system will work its way through the region on
Thursday, which will bring scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to the area. This front will have an earlier
passage, so areas west of I-81 may dry out for the afternoon,
with lingering showers still present east of I-81. Otherwise,
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in
the lower to mid 70s. A few isolated showers may remain early
Thursday evening, but otherwise most of the area will be mainly
dry with lows mainly in the 50s.

High pressure will bring dry conditions for Friday along with
partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower
to mid 70s. A few isolated showers will be possible from the
Twin Tiers southward Friday night with potentially some moisture
advecting in between an upper level low across the Canadian
Maritimes and another low across the Mississippi River Valley,
but the chance are that the entire area will remain rain-free.
Lows are expected to mainly be in the 50s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update:

Mainly dry conditions are anticipated for the weekend with
surface high pressure in control and moisture associated with
the remnants of Helene remaining across the Mississippi River
Valley area. This closed upper low will transition to more of an
open wave early next week and potentially bring showers to the
area around the Tuesday timeframe. This is far from a certainty
though as there is some model guidance that keeps this moisture
well south of our area.

Temperatures in the long term will remain slightly above normal
(highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers are lifting north of the Mohawk Valley and will be
highly isolated over the next several hours, though a slight
uptick in coverage is possible as we get closer to dawn.

Conditions across the area currently range from VFR to Fuel Alt,
with worse conditions generally across the Southern Tier and
NEPA. This will continue to be the trend through the morning
hours, though VFR conditions will likely worsen to MVFR after
about 08 or 09Z.

Localized gusty winds will continue through morning hours,
mainly in higher terrain sites such as ITH and BGM.

Showers will be spotty through the morning hours, with steadier
showers arriving this afternoon and evening, with worsening
restrictions from lowering ceilings and visibility. Isolated
thunder can`t be ruled out, but probabilities are too low to
carry in the TAFs.

.Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with
showers passing through the region. Isolated thunder could also
occur.

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL/MPH