370
FXUS61 KBGM 241739
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected
into the early morning. While much of the area will become drier
by this afternoon, additional disturbances will support shower
chances tonight through Thursday. The pattern will change in
time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Only minor changes to the coverage of showers and drizzle this
morning with the mid-morning and noontime updates. Previous
discussion below.


420 AM Update...

Cloudy skies prevail across the area this morning, with plenty
of low stratus, especially across the Southern Tier into NEPA.
Some light radar returns have been increasing over the past
hour or so, likely just spotty drizzle which will continue off
and on through about mid morning.

Otherwise, while we remain in active southwesterly flow aloft,
we`ll spend most of the day between upper level disturbances,
and with the lack of forcing, showers will be very sparse. Rain
chances will be marginally higher across western sections such
as the Finger Lakes, as high pressure over New England keeps
trying to filter drier air at the low levels into the eastern
reaches of the CWA.

Rain showers will increase again tonight as another shortwave
trough rolls through the area, and a 100-knot jet streak noses
into western NY. Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
either.

Wednesday will likely be mostly dry to start, but with
additional widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
cropping up in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update...

A warm front looks to slowly move through the region Wednesday
night through Thursday which will help trigger scattered
showers. While bulk shear values are sufficient, there appears
to be little in the way of instability during this time, so any
thunderstorm activity is expected to be pretty isolated.
Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Thursday seem to be
generally 0.50 of an inch or less looking at both the
operational and ensemble guidance members, but the 00Z Euro does
look to be a little more robust in comparison to the previous
12Z run with a more broad 0.50-0.75 of an inch or so over CNY
with localized higher amounts near and north of the NYS Thruway.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and low 60s. Highs
Thursday are expected to be in the upper 60s and 70s, with the
Wyoming Valley climbing into the upper 70s.

Showers are expected to taper off during the evening hours
Thursday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure building in from the north out of Canada
is expected to promote largely dry conditions over the region
Friday through Monday. A cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi
River Valley is expected to weaken into an open wave of low
pressure and be drawn northward as an upper trough moves into
the northern Great Lakes region. This would lead to a chance of
showers as early as Tuesday next week.

One thing that does bear watching in the longer range is the
Canadian has the cutoff low stronger and it shifting north over
the Ohio Valley and eventually toward our area over the weekend.
Enough moisture would be drawn up from the south that could
result in spotty showers Saturday-Monday. For now, NBM PoPs were
capped at 20% during this time as most model solutions still
favor dry conditions. Seasonable temperatures are expected with
highs in the 60s and 70s through early next week and nighttime
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR ceilings should largely remain in place for the rest of
the afternoon. It is possible and mentioned through TEMPOS for
the ceilings to lift to VFR for brief intervals. However,
ceilings should generally start to lower a bit in the MVFR
range. Some IFR ceilings toward sunrise are possible at
KELM,KAVP,KITH and KBGM.

These ceilings should only be slow to lift again on
Wednesday. A few rounds of showers are also expected with the
highest chances for visibility restrictions toward sunrise and
then till the end of the TAF period. A few southeast wind gusts
may approach 20 knots from time to time as well. Weak speed LLWS
is possible as well for a time overnight but some uncertainity
is still present and it was not included with the updated TAFS.
A brief rumble of thunder can not be ruled out with the showers
as well.

.Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with
showers passing through the region. Embedded thunder could also
occur later on Wednesday.

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP
NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MWG