965
FXUS64 KBMX 161734
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

A hot and sultry summer day will be on tap across Central Alabama
for our Sunday, with a scattering of summer convection to keep an
eye on. On the synoptic scale, a 500mb ridge remains off to the
east, centered over the Carolinas. Southerly to southeasterly flow
will persist across much of the atmospheric profile, with the
deepest moisture currently present along the immediate Gulf Coast.
An almost diffuse stationary boundary is being analyzed across the
northeastern portions of Alabama, Central Tennessee, and northern
Georgia. 12z KBMX RAOB data measured a plentiful amount of dry
air aloft from 550mb to 300mb as the upper ridge continues to
build to our east. As southerly to southeasterly flow increases
through the afternoon and into the early evening hours between the
850-750mb layers, sufficient moisture is expected to stream
northwestward into our southern and southwest counties. Synoptic-
scale lift in the form of a 500mb vort max will combine with
mesoscale-driven convective initiation and boundary interactions
this afternoon. At least scattered showers and storms are expected
as a result across southern and southwestern counties through the
afternoon and early evening. Storms that have already developed
across the Gulf Coast are sending outflow boundaries northward
which will aid in convective development as temperatures rise into
the mid and upper 90s this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms
will remain possible elsewhere, especially for locations closer to
the stalled boundary in the northeast counties.

As we observed yesterday, any of these storms that develop will be
strong, capable of producing microburst-like winds and locally
heavy rainfall. An isolated severe storm certainly can`t be ruled
out. SBCAPE values are expected to rise into the 3000-4000 J/kg
range across the south this afternoon, coupled with dry air aloft
and DCAPE between 1000-1200 J/kg. Based on how storm development
materializes later this afternoon, PoPs may need to be increased,
especially across the southwest counties.

Showers and storms will linger for a couple of hours after sunset
due to mesoscale boundary collisions and interactions and then
diminish overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected
overnight with southeasterly flow aloft continuing. The upper
ridge will continue to build and broaden over the Mid-Atlantic
states during the day on Monday. As 700mb flow becomes more
easterly by Monday afternoon, drier air will advect westward from
Georgia and the Carolinas. Due to the influence from the upper
ridge, PoPs will be more isolated across the eastern counties,
while scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible across
the western counties, as 500mb shortwave activity and highest
PWATs will still exist. Temperatures are expected to be a tad
cooler Monday afternoon, but most folks won`t notice much of a
difference as highs top out in the low to mid 90s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

An incredibly strong mid-level ridge will be positioned over
North Carolina and Southern Virginia to start the long-term
forecast period. The ridging will remain strong and expansive
though midweek while a disturbance becomes more organized over the
Bay of Campeche and migrates northwest toward the Southeast Texas
Coast through Wednesday. The robust ridging will continue to
persist, becoming elongated from over the Mid Atlantic Region west
to over the Central Mississippi River Valley Region toward the
end of this forecast period. The elongated ridging configuration
will result in a mid-level weakness to develop over the much of
Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, allowing an easterly wave
to move westward toward the Central Gulf Coast Region on Friday.

Similar trends were noted compared with the previous shift with
guidance high temperatures being too warm in the late week time
frame, so adjusted downward accordingly. The ridging influence
through mid week will keep PoPs quite low through Thursday.
Isolated showers and storms are expected generally along and
southeast of Interstate 59 with a scattered coverage near and
southeast of Interstate 85 on Friday. A reduction in activity is
forecast overnight followed by isolated showers and storms
areawide with scattered activity across the far southeast counties
during the day on Saturday in association with the deep tropical
moisture.

05

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

A highly anomalous and potentially unprecedented deep-layer ridge
to our east, will expand on Tuesday, with its center shifting
from North Carolina to near New York City. As the ridge remains
nearly stationary through Thursday, 500 mb heights may reach an
incredible 600 dam. At the southern periphery of the ridge, drier
air circulating around the ridge will move into Alabama from the
east. PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches on Tuesday and
persist through Thursday. The easterly flow from the Atlantic
should serve to moderate temperatures as well. NBM temperatures
are well above MEX guidance through the long term period, which
does not seem reasonable given reduced 850 mb temperatures and
low-level thickness values. Therefore, this update undercuts NBM
by 2 to 5 degrees for afternoon highs and 1 to 3 degrees for
morning lows, for Tuesday through Saturday.

A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach
our eastern counties on Friday. This may bring an increase in rain
chances that could continue into Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the forecast
period. SHRA/TSRA development will be possible for the southern
terminals of MGM and TOI later this afternoon, but we don`t have
enough confidence of including TS in the TAF just yet. Prevailing
surface winds this afternoon will be from the southeast between 5
and 10 knots. Clouds are expected to linger through the overnight
hours, but remain above MVFR criteria at this time. A few
observations of MVFR stratus aren`t out of the question at TCL,
MGM, and TOI between 09z and 12z Monday morning. We`ll keep an eye
on observation and guidance trends through the evening to
determine if forecast updates are needed.

VFR conditions were kept in the forecast through the planning
period with highest SHRA/TSRA chances at TCL by 18z Monday
afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across
much of the area, although spatial coverage looks to be somewhat
limited. 20-foot winds will be southeasterly up to 6-8 mph each
day through Tuesday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected
to drop into the 35-45 percent range Sunday and remain above 40
percent on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  94  70  90 /  10  20  10   0
Anniston    72  93  71  89 /  10  20   0   0
Birmingham  73  93  74  91 /  10  30  10   0
Tuscaloosa  73  91  73  90 /  20  40  10  10
Calera      73  93  73  90 /  10  30  10   0
Auburn      73  91  70  88 /  10  20   0   0
Montgomery  73  94  73  89 /  20  30  10   0
Troy        71  93  70  89 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...56