782
FXUS64 KBMX 061751
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

A cold front will continue through the area today, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop through the afternoon
and evening. There should be plenty of instability for convection to
continue with values around 2000- 2500 J/kg, though shear is
expected to be noticeably less than past days. PW values will be
decreasing as the front moves through, with the front expected to be
midstate by early afternoon today. From the afternoon through the
evening, activity is expected southeastern half of the state where
instabilities are present and winds remain out of the southwest.
The northwest half of the state could see clearing clouds and
drier air through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The front
will move slowly east of the state by midnight tonight, with a
high pressure to the west meandering through the south tonight
through Friday.

Northwest flow will prevail through Friday with much drier air
advecting into the state. Fog is possible Friday morning in many
areas south of I65, where low level moisture will remain through
the early morning. Mostly clear skies and dry weather will remain
Friday.


24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Drier air will be in place on Saturday as the northerly flow allow
for more of a continental air mass. Temperatures will likely still
rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. Another frontal boundary pushes
southward into TN Valley and eventually into Central AL Sunday
night through Monday, which will lead to increased
rain/thunderstorm chances. However, with the drier air mass in
place ahead of the boundary, there are some questions on the
moisture return and therefore coverage of convective activity.
Tuesday into Wednesday appear to be dry for now with the frontal
boundary stalled to our south.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

As a frontal boundary moves to the southeast, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly around KMGM and KTOI.
VFR conditions are possible unless activity moves over a TAF site
where MVFR visibilities are possible. A few areas of MVFR ceilings
are possible through the afternoon and early evening behind the
front, but left out of prevailing TAF at each site for now due to
low confidence. Fog is possible mainly at KMGM and KTOI where low
level moisture remains through the night. VFR conditions expected
friday as high pressure moves over the state.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal boundary moves through the area today through tomorrow
morning. Showers and storms are expected today with rainfree
conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH values remain
above 50 percent this afternoon, and falling into the low 30%
range by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    67  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  68  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      69  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      70  89  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  69  89  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        69  91  62  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24