155
FXUS64 KBRO 281735 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A 500mb ridge centered over northern Texas will be the dominate
feature for Deep South Texas through the period. However, a weak
inverted mid-level trough moving under the ridge, combined with
precipitable water values around two inches, will result in
isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms today. Generally
rain-free conditions are expected on Saturday as PWATS briefly
decrease across the region on Saturday.

Temperature-wise, above normal values are anticipated. Heat indices
will approach the established Heat Advisory criteria today and
tomorrow, However, time duration and areal coverage may be limiting
factors, so for now, will cover the heat indices with a Special
Weather Statement for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A window of opportunity for precipitation will exist from Saturday
night through Monday. This will be courtesy of an influx of deep
tropical moisture into the BRO CWFA associated with a potential
tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. The best chance for rain
is anticipated for Sunday across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley, with scattered to even numerous showers/thunderstorms
across the whole of the region. From Monday night onwards, dry
weather will return as the potential tropical system moves inland
and the deep moisture wanes a bit.

Temperature-wise, near to slightly above normal values are forecast,
with 500 mb high pressure the main weather influence. Despite the
increased atmospheric moisture, heat indices through the long term
forecast period are not anticipated to reach established HEAT
ADVISORY criteria, so a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT will likely be the
vehicle to convey the elevated heat index values daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Gusty
southeasterly winds are expected this afternoon, becoming light
overnight. Some increased cloud cover and an isolated shower or
thunderstorm are possible this afternoon, however confidence in
any TAF site seeing impacts are too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 14 knots gusting to around
16 knots with seas of 3 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 210 AM
CDT/0710 UTC. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas
are expected along the Lower Texas Coast through the period with
high pressure in control across the western Gulf of Mexico. Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will be possible on the
Gulf waters tonight.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Degenerating marine conditions are anticipated from Saturday night
through Sunday night due to an enhanced pressure gradient associated
with a possible tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. Small Craft
Advisory is likely along the Lower Texas Coast during this period,
mainly for the Gulf of Mexico waters due to seas. Afterwards, a
steady improvement in winds and seas will occur as swell generated
by the system subsides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  83  94  82 /  20  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               96  79  95  78 /  20   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 98  82  98  80 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  80  98  79 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  84  88  83 /  10  10   0  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  81  93  81 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...60-BE