800
ACUS01 KWNS 220043
SWODY1
SPC AC 220042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this
evening across portions of the southern High Plains.

...01z Update...

Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early
this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across
southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern
High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved
across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough,
LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued
clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into
the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within
southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the
synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates
with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted
around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this
activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete
supercells.

...Elsewhere...

Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding
multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level
warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly
modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue,
especially for the next few hours.

Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy
across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong
winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is
gradually waning.

..Darrow.. 09/22/2024

$$