Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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487 ACUS01 KWNS 110531 SWODY1 SPC AC 110530 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 $$