550
FXUS63 KEAX 232033
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry this afternoon and evening.

- A line of thunderstorms is expected to enter NW MO around 5-6 AM
Friday. Strong to severe storms are possible with the primary hazard
being damaging winds and heavy rain. Hail and an isolated tornado
are also possible. Storms look to move through the KC metro at the
tail end of rush hour. Storms exit the region midday.

- More thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening through Sunday. A
few of these storms may be strong to severe as well.

- The ebb and flow of sunny days then stormy days continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Mid level ridging and a week low level anticyclone keeps the daytime
hours around the region warm and dry. High temperatures this
afternoon are expected to crest 80 degrees. However, our eyes are
more focused across the intermountain west as a strong funnel of
warm air and moisture advection launches northward into the upper
Plains. This is mostly attributed to an upper level low which can be
seen on satellite across eastern Montana. This will catalyze the
development of a surface low in eastern WY and western SD/NE. The
swift advection of unstable air and CVA of the upper level low will
create fast and deep cyclogenesis across NE during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe storms are likely
across this region. Storms are expected to start out discrete before
assembling into a line and migrating south and east through the
overnight. Model guidance has been varying slightly in the
anticipated storm mode; however, consensus has been trending toward
a more linear type system rather than a broad scale MCS. Timing has
narrowed with storms looking to enter the region around 3-4 AM and
exiting after 11 AM Friday morning. It is looking like the line of
storms with a potential for damaging winds and hail may impact the
KC Metro during the tail end of the morning rush hour.

The mesoscale trend of environmental guidance has been that storms
should weaken as they progress eastward of the MO/KS state line;
however, convective variables remain borderline and complexes like
these can sometimes leverage the borderline environment modifying it
to be a little more favorable. Higher resolution model guidance
proposes three primary solutions. 1) A line of storms extends from
the IA border to the I-70 corridor. 2) The line extends across the
entire region. 3) Storms remain north of the IA border. While
guidance has suggested this line of storms having more linear
characteristics than MCS, nearly all members suggest the
thunderstorms complex following a CAPE gradient that is expected to
stretch from Rock Port southeast through Columbia. This orientation
does favor a more northerly track of showers and storm; however, the
line is expected to remain more or less attached to the cold front.
Conceptually, this should create a lifting mechanism
initiating/maintaining thunderstorms as the line progress across
western MO. This decreases confidence in the 3rd solution (all
storms remain in IA). The primary hurdle storms will have is
nocturnal cooling through the early overnight. This creates an
inversion around 3000ft resulting in elevated storms. MUCAPE sits
around 3000-4000 J/kg which is more than suitable for severe
hazards. SBCAPE Friday morning resides around 2500 J/kg; while
tampered by the nocturnal inversion, adds additional confidence to
strong to severe potential. This instability and the lifting brought
by the cold front adds additional confidence to the 1st and 2nd
solutions posed by guidance. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are
the most likely hazards with large hail also possible. Elevated
storms generally lower the tornado threat; however, given the
instability and somewhat favorable shear profile, an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms eventually detach and outrun the
front during the mid morning as they exit the region. Back end warm
air advection and isentropic ascent behind the line may catalyze
some isolated storms along the 850mb cold front Friday afternoon
across central MO. This will be highly dependent on how worked over
the environment is from Friday morning`s storms.

Northwest upper level flow and surface high pressure calms things
down for Saturday during the morning and early afternoon. However,
the ridge quickly traverses the central CONUS allowing warm moist
flow to accelerate back northward across the Plains. CVA from ejected
shortwave troughs entice the development of another leeward trough
across NW KS Saturday evening. Like today`s storm, this low quickly
deepens with isentropic ascent across the eastern warm sector
developing broad areas of showers and thunderstorms; however, unlike
Thu/Fri`s storm, its movement is much slower. Guidance suggests the
cyclone stalling across north central KS extending a warm frontal
boundary along the I-70 corridor with the cold front oriented across
the I-135/I-35 corridor. Initially, widespread stratiform showers
and thunderstorms are expected across northern MO north of the warm
front; however, models do propose strong to severe storms developing
ahead of the cold front in SE KS. The good news is these storms are
likely to remain SW of the area; weakening before entering the
region. During the overnight, another upper level wave kicks the low
eastward keeping shower and storm chances around through the
overnight hours. Continuing frontogenesis and destabilization across
the warm sector brings chances for strong to severe storms primarily
along the US-65 corridor in central MO starting Sunday mid morning;
however, the greater chances for severe storms exist further east.
Showers and thunderstorms should conclude Sunday afternoon for those
west of IS-65 with storms lingering into Sunday evening for Central
MO.

Extended guidance keeps the tumultuous weather pattern around for
the next several days. Each time a ridge tries to establish warm
and dry conditions, an upper level shortwave rolls through igniting
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. This constant
ebbing and flowing of mid to upper level flow has resulting in a
wide range for extended temperature forecasts as temperatures are
highly dependent on what air mass is being pushed into the region;
however, the overall expectation is for seasonal temperatures with
steady warming as June and summer approach.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions continue thru midnight. TSRA expected starting
near sunrise through Fri AM. Conditions are expected to
deteriorate rapidly as a line of TSRA moves thru the terminals
around sunrise Fri morning. High winds are expected with storms.
Once the line passes, winds shift NW remaining gusty thru the
period. VFR conditions return midday into early Fri PM.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel