Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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008 FXUS63 KEAX 131745 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1245 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will continue through Monday. Rainfall amounts as high as high as 2 inches will be possible leading to minor flooding concerns. -Dry weather and near normal temperatures expected for the middle of next week. -Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has move over the area overnight as a shortwave trough track east through our forecast area. Generally expect this activity to continue through much of the day, and gradually ending from west to east Monday night. Severe weather still looks unlikely with unsupportive CAPE and shear profiles. PWAT values across the area will range from about 1 - 1.5 inches. Generally not expecting significant impacts from this event, but its long duration combined with potential brief period for heavier downpours could lead to some minor flooding for the rivers. Outside of rain chances, temperatures on Monday briefly return to below normal with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Dry conditions are expected to return by Tuesday morning as the wave pushes east of the forecast area. Short lived ridging will shift overhead allowing for the return of light southerly flow and temperatures returning to near normal for the middle part of the work week. Highs will be in the mid 70s for most on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday evening our focus will shift to another disturbance shifting toward the forecast area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will again be possible beginning Wednesday night with potential for activity continuing into Thursday night. Severe weather again looks unlikely with this system, however it may bring additional potential for rainfall amounts over an inch. This could lead to additional or prolonged river flooding. After this system moves out of the area on Friday, dry weather will return for the weekend as ridging sets up over the forecast area once again. Southerly flow on both Saturday and Sunday will help push the temperature back to above normal with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A messy TAF period is expected for Monday with on and off rainfall and thunderstorms expected through the period. Additionally, ceilings are expected to gradually diminish to IFR by late Monday morning. Some improvement to MVFR can be expected by the afternoon. Rainfall gradually expected to come to an end Monday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A low slowly traversing the area keeps scattered showers around through much of the period. Isolated TSRA is possible into the early evening hours. Rain coverage becomes more sparse after sunset, but chances linger through the overnight. CIGs bounce around low MVFR to low VFR with MVFR expected to be prevailing much of the period. Winds gradually shift northerly as the low moves east this afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...Pesel