678
FXUS63 KEAX 121939
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
239 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop and move into
  the area beginning this afternoon and continuing through
  Monday.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for Wednesday
 evening into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Clouds continue to increase across the area this afternoon, with
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Shouldn`t see much more
increase in max readings as clouds continue to thicken for the
remainder of the afternoon. Congested cumulus is noted over the past
30 minutes over the central CWA, and should see some of this
activity begin precipitating over the next 1-2 hours as it moves ENE.
The more widespread period of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
expected from midnight into mid-morning Monday when large scale
ascent increases ahead of the next approaching, slow-moving upper
wave currently positioned over western Kansas. While the environment
will not be supportive of severe weather, persistent moderate
precipitation may bring upwards of one inch of rainfall for many
locations by late Monday. While a mid-level dry slot may tend to end
precipitation for many areas by midday Monday over the SE half of the
CWA, wrap-around precipitation may persist over northern and
northwestern Missouri into northeast Kansas, with one final band of
rain moving west to east Monday afternoon and evening. With the
clouds and rainfall, high temperatures will be roughly ten degrees
cooler than today.

Dry conditions return for the second half of Tuesday into the first
half of Wednesday, with a short window of sunshine during a period
of upper ridging in between systems. Increasing ascent from a
quickly-moving positively-tilted wave over the upper Midwest and
its respective surface cold front sliding across the CWA, in
conjunction with a second disturbance over the Southern Plains with
diffluent flow will all aid in helping develop periodic showers and
thunderstorms across the region from late Wednesday into late
Thursday. Another moderate precipitation event is possible, with
some areas potentially receiving another one inch of rainfall. Rain
is expected to exit the area by Friday with mostly dry conditions
expected for the weekend. Above normal highs look to return as well
with 80s expected for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Initial VFR conditions may trend MVFR/IFR by sunrise Monday.
Scattered showers will develop near terminal space by late afternoon
and early evening, with more widespread coverage after midnight.
Additionally a few thunderstorms will be possible in the more robust
activity overnight into Monday morning. Cigs may go lower than
current forecast, but trending lower as confidence increases.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair