838
AXPZ20 KNHC 110301
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 13N90W to 08N131W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N131W to 11N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to
14N between 91W and 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 05N to 09N E of 91W, from 07N to 11N between 100W
and 110W, and from 09N to 11N between 126W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb is located NW of area near 35N135W and
extends a ridge southeastward across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California to well offshore of SW Mexico along 110W.
This pattern supports gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta
Eugenia and moderate to locally fresh NW winds southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft . Light and
variable winds are noted inside the Gulf of California, where
seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range, except to 4 ft at the entrance.
Mainly moderate NW winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of
4 to 7 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are along the
coast of Chiapas, Mexico, and also over the outer waters south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore
forecast waters through Thu, producing moderate NW winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh winds near the coast during the
afternoon through late evening hours. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of
California, pulsing to fresh speeds across the central portions
Tue evening and Wed evening. High pressure across the northeast
Pacific will strengthen Thu night and Fri and yield a increase
in winds across the offshore waters. Thunderstorms across the
offshore waters of Central America are expected to begin to shift
west and northwestward and into the waters of Tehuantepec and
southern Mexico Tue through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
climatological position for this time of the year, extending
across northern Costa Rica and along the Pacific coast of
Nicaragua to 13N. This pattern is forecast to persist throughout
the week, with the potential for the trough to lift farther
northward and to the waters offshore of Tehuantepec late in the
week. The current trough position is resulting in gentle to
moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central America
north of 05N, and moderate S to SW winds between the Galapagos
Islands and southwestern Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft
in SW swell, except 3 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of Panama.
Scattered thunderstorms continue across the regional offshore
waters.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and associated waves and
thunderstorms will dominate the region this week. Light to
gentle winds will prevail north of 12N, increasing to gentle to
moderate winds Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected south of 12N into Wed. Low pressure is expected to
develop across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of
Campeche, and western portions of Central America Wed and Thu.
This will induce the monsoon trough to lift northward toward the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 88W increasing to
fresh to locally strong, leading to building seas of 7 to 10 ft.
Look for thunderstorm activity to also increase during this
time.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system is centered near 35N135W and
extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W,
producing a gentle to moderate mainly NE flow, with highest
winds near the ITCZ west of 125W. Moderate SE to S winds are
observed S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from the Equator to
about 08N and W of 120W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed S and NW
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area W of 120W
throughout the week, while gradually strengthening NW of the area.
The SW flow south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue night into
Thu, building seas to 8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing
thunderstorm activity there.

$$
Konarik