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Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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772 AXPZ20 KNHC 151525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: Moist onshore flow associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) has been delivering periods of heavy rainfall across Panama and Costa Rica. This activity will likely continue through at least early Sun then gradually diminish. Meanwhile, the focus will be shifting farther north to northern Central America, where moderate to fresh onshore flow is already bringing clusters of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal regions of El Salvador. This onshore flow will increase Sun and continue into mid week as the CAG intensifies and persists. This pattern will bring the threat of heavy rainfall, flooding and mudslides to primarily coastal regions of northern Central America from northwest Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and into the Mexican state of Chiapas. The persistence of the moist pattern and strong onshore flow will create very hazardous conditions to the region and could be life-threatening. Please refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 18N105W to 06N125W. The ITCZ extends from 06N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 08N between 77W and 87W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 14N between 97W and 98W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure well to the northwest near 35N140W, southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate moderate NW flow off Baja California on the eastern edge of the ridge, but concurrent altimeter passes show 6 to 8 ft seas to the west of Guadalupe Island, primarily due to NW swell approaching the region. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell, except for slight seas over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions were noticed yesterday off Jalisco and Colima, but recent observations indicate visibility may have improved. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will persist off Baja California Norte through Mon, primarily beyond 120 nm offshore. Large swell of 8 to 12 ft will move into the waters off Baja California today, and persist mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into mid week before subsiding. Meanwhile, off southern Mexico, expect fresh SW winds and building seas starting tonight off Chiapas as a Central American Gyre develops over the region. Winds and seas will increase further off Chiapas and Oaxaca through the early part of the week as the gyre intensifies and persists. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central American Gyre. With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, this is bringing fresh winds across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters with seas 7 to 9 ft, with the maximum seas noted off the southern Azuero Peninsula of Panama. Across the rest of the Central American offshore waters, winds are moderate to fresh with 6 to 8 ft seas. Strong thunderstorms continue to impact Central America, bringing heavy rain and frequent lightning. These storms could cause hazardous marine conditions. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within S swell. For the forecast, the developing Central American Gyre will cause an increase in winds, rough seas and widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of offshore waters through mid week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Panama will diminish by early Sun, as the focus of strong SW winds and rough seas shifts farther north from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Farther south, seas to 8 ft in S swell will continue around the Galapagos Islands through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure near 35N140W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W with seas 6 to 9 ft. East of 115W, gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough to 05N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the rest of the Pacific waters. For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are likely to dip south of 30N at times through early next week. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to continue tonight between 90W and 115W, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple of days. Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. $$ Christensen