226
FXUS62 KFFC 091055
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak frontal boundary will sag southward across the CWA later
today.

Main forecast challenge through the short term period will be the
timing of any convection. Large MCS currently across the Mid
Mississippi River valley will continue to dive SE early this
morning. The hi-res models do have this cluster of storms weakening
as it moves further SE this morning. However, do think additional
convection will likely fire along it`s old cold pool or in
association with a mid level disturbance later this afternoon.
Models continue to keep the main convective cluster with this
secondary system north of the CWA, with a few isold/sct storms
making it just south of the GA/TN/NC border.

Do think any semi-organized convection that has the best chances of
impacting a larger portion of the CWA will be along or just ahead of
the sagging frontal boundary. This front is currently still well to
the NW of the CWA, stretching from the southern Great Lakes back
through central MO and northern OK. Any mid level shortwave/MCV
riding this boundary later this evening will have the potential to
produce convection. Currently, the models have scattered storms
developing right around 00Z and lingering into the overnight hours.
Of course, any development of storms is highly dependent upon the
track of early MCS development upstream. Have tried to best capture
the convective trends according to the hi-res models trends, but
adjustments to timing and coverage will have to be made at a later
time...especially to account for any potential MCS activity.

The weak front is expected to make it just to the south of the CWA
by late Monday. Isold/sct convection will likely focus along this
boundary through through the day on Monday.

There will be plenty of instability available for thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Lapse rates remain fairly marginal. A few strong
storms are likely through the period, with isolated severe storms
possible (mainly this afternoon). Primary severe hazards would be
damaging wind gusts. Lapse rates indicate that hail will be also be
possible.

Dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s will settle across much of the
CWA behind the front, mainly north of MCN to CSG.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The trough continues to move off the east coast Tuesday with the
front well to the south. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper
80s, however with PWATs less than 0.8" the air will feel nice and
dry. This only lasts through Wednesday morning, when moisture begins
to surge out of The Gulf. The big question mark will be the timing,
intensity, and location of the moisture plume and developing gulf
low. Deep flow out of the tropics on the eastern side of the sfc low
will be the main driver for moisture transport, and any moisture
plume could be narrow and intense. Looking at integrated vapor
transport, values along the gulf coast look more in line with a west
coast atmospheric river than a generic surface low. Weak mid and
upper level support will help to keep the worst of the precipitation
near the coast. PoPs will remain in the area essentially from
Wednesday through the end of the longterm outlook. Though, given
PWATs as high as 2.25 to 2.75 inches, precipitation across the
southern CWA could be heavy at times through the end of the long
term outlook. One caveat to this is the potential for dry air
wedging into North and Central GA with NE flow as the sfc low drifts
northward. This too is highly dependent on the low track and is
currently only depicted in the GFS.

Otherwise, conditions will most likely be wet, tropical, and muggy
through much of the longterm outlook, so enjoy the nicer conditions
on Tuesday while you can.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Convection to the NW continues to weaken, but may produce an
outflow boundary for later afternoon convection. Models are not
progging this, but will have to monitor. A few/sct lower cu
possible as the MCS dies to the NW. Models are coming into a
little better agreement with a broken line of shra/tsra after 00Z
MON, but the exact timing remains a challenge. Winds will remain
on the west side, with some low end gusts to around 20kt possible
today.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence convective timing. High confidence remaining
elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  84  61  86 /  30  30  10  10
Atlanta         70  84  62  86 /  30  30  10  10
Blairsville     60  76  53  79 /  30  20  10  10
Cartersville    65  82  58  85 /  30  20  10  10
Columbus        73  89  67  89 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     67  81  60  83 /  30  20  10  10
Macon           73  88  65  89 /  10  20  20  10
Rome            67  84  59  85 /  30  20   0   0
Peachtree City  68  84  61  86 /  30  30  10  10
Vidalia         75  91  69  91 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa