018
FXUS62 KFFC 081055
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

One more day of nice dewpoints before moisture begins to return
to the area - with a more summerlike feel.

High pressure and dry conditions will persist today. Daytime
dewpoints in the 50s are expected across the CWA which will result
in RH values between 30 and 40 percent. Not much cloud cover around
today, but mid/high clouds will start to increase overnight into
early Sunday.

Models are progging a weak frontal boundary to begin sagging
southward towards far north GA on Sunday. There are some indications
within the thickness pattern a MCS may graze far northern portions
of the front as is nears the area. Not confident enough to go likely
pops for now, and will cap at high end chance across the GA/NC/TN
border.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A digging trough over the Great Lakes Region will help to shove the
stationary boundary further south. This, combined with area wide
PWATs of 1.75"+, will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the
CWA. CAPE values ahead of the front Monday morning will be ~1000
J/Kg and some light shear may be enough for a few storms to become
strong. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this
time, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will all
be possible through Monday.

Models seem to have gotten their act together when it comes to
resolving the evolution of the digging trough. The trough will
bottom out near the GA/FL border, and should be enough to push the
frontal boundary out of the CWA. This will likely mean a short dry
period on Tuesday with PWATs behind the front of only 0.75" or less.

Wednesday will see a return to the wet pattern, though, with a surge
of tropical moisture. Models are also being much more consistent
with this feature than previous runs. Weak tropical low development
over the gulf will drift northward on Wednesday bringing with it a
surge of much juicier air, pushing the front northward once again.
PoPs increase as PWATs potentially climb into 2-2.5" range by Friday
afternoon (gross). Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday onward with this surge of moisture and we will have to
continue to monitor moisture advection for any potential flooding
risks.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR through the period, with some increasing high/mid clouds.
Wind direction will be a challenge and speeds will be light.
Already, winds are very light NE but may oscillate around due
north until mid/late morning. The direction will likely shift back
to the west side by the early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind direction. High confidence remaining
elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  92  68  86 /  10  20  20  30
Atlanta         69  93  70  85 /   0  20  20  30
Blairsville     63  82  61  78 /  10  40  20  30
Cartersville    65  90  66  84 /  10  30  20  20
Columbus        68  96  73  91 /   0  10  10  30
Gainesville     67  88  68  83 /  10  20  20  20
Macon           67  97  72  90 /   0   0  10  30
Rome            66  90  67  85 /  10  30  20  20
Peachtree City  66  95  69  87 /   0  10  10  30
Vidalia         69  98  74  93 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa