146
FXUS62 KFFC 071728
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
128 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Quiet weather expected for the short term period.

A weak front will continue to move south across the CWA today.
Behind the front, dewpoints are expected to drop into the lower to
middle 50s (!) across most locales. The dewpoints/rh values will
begin to creep upwards on Saturday, but will still be very pleasant
for this time of year. Temperatures right around normal are
anticipated.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Conditions will be mostly dry to start the long term outlook on
Sunday morning. Weak northwest flow and a messy series of shortwaves
may be able to initiate a few showers, and potentially even a few
rumbles of thunder, in far north GA.

The main feature of interest will be the progression of a digging
trough and surge of tropical moisture between Monday and Wednesday.
Current model consistency remains low with this interaction. Let`s
start by looking at the model similarities. To start, most models
are consistent with a corridor of moisture along a stationary front
stretching from Southern MO across the TN valley. PWATs will be 1.5
to 2.0 inches across this entire region. Models also agree that a
trough will begin to develop late Sunday through Monday. Now to get
into the more complicated bits, models significantly disagree with
the evolution of a digging trough. The difference appears to be
partly driven by surging tropical moisture from the south from a
weak Gulf low slowly drifting northward. This intensifies the
temperature gradient and allows for significantly stronger
cyclogenesis across the southern midwest and a more progressive
upper level trough. The stronger associated cold front would be
enough to support stormy frontal passage by Late Tuesday. This
solution is currently only represented in the GFS and seems the most
suspect given GFS tropical tendencies. As such the more likely
scenario will see the trough dig to the west and progress much
slower across the CONUS. A much weaker cold front combined with the
messy shortwaves will still be enough to initiate some thunderstorms
through early next week, especially when considering diurnal trends
and peak CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg. As of right now the
secondary solution is too far out for models to resolve when the
trough itself will come through. Overall, the risk of severe weather
should remain low, however a few stronger storms may be possible
under either scenario.

Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Conditions will likely be steamy given
the ample moisture. Make sure to stay cool.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

NW winds at 8-10kts could gust as high as 19kts today. Winds will
shift to the E side after 12Z. FEW040 will remain for the afternoon,
but conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  89  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         63  89  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     53  83  62  83 /   0  10  10  40
Cartersville    56  89  63  91 /   0  10   0  20
Columbus        65  93  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     60  86  67  90 /   0  10   0  20
Macon           59  92  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            56  90  62  92 /   0  10  10  30
Peachtree City  57  90  63  94 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         66  93  67  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Vaughn