282
FXUS62 KFFC 102321
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024


...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Cold front continues to slowly traverse the CWA today. For those
behind it, some relief from the humidity is filtering in - for those
in front of it, it`s hot, it`s humid, and thunderstorms, some of
which could be severe, are possible. Deep trough is in place across
the eastern CONUS with notable speed max over east central GA into
SC. Right entrance region is in favorable location to provide some
lift over east central Georgia. Day time heating has brought
temperatures well into the upper 80s and lower 90s across this area
with dewpoints that are in the lower 70s. Upper level trough has
brought moderately cooler temps aloft, allowing lapse rate to
increase to 7 C/km. Put together, this has created plenty of
instability, with MLCAPE values surging to 2000+ J/kg. Effective
bulk shear is substantial, approaching 40-50 kts in this area,
though hodographs are relatively straight, keeping SRH values low
overall. Hail looks to be the primary threat this afternoon for east
central Georgia, though damaging winds will also be possible.
Overall tornado threat is low, but won`t say zero, as a mesoscale
accident with outflow interactions is rarely out of the realm of
possibility. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for this area
through this evening.

This is the main show in the short term. These storms should move
out of the CWA by this evening. The front is expected to continue
creeping to the south. This should keep central GA dry tomorrow, but
it may take a bit longer for the drier air to arrive. Highs tomorrow
will be a bit split, with low 80s to the north, mid 80s across the
metro, and upper 80s to 90s in central Georgia. Lows tonight and
tomorrow will see a similar split as well, with the north seeing
upper 50s, right at 60 in the metro, and mid to upper 60s in central
Georgia.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

No major changes made to the extended forecast. Models continue
to struggle with the long term outlook, so this discussion will
remain overall broad to explore forecast challenges. A broad upper
level ridge will make flow weak across the Southeast and into the
Gulf of Mexico. Models are still attempting to resolve a weak
gulf surface low with the potential to transport significant
moisture northward. The track of the low itself will have major
implications in the amount of moisture that is brought northward.
Run to run model variability on max PWATs has ranged from around
2.0" to as high as 2.75". Again, dependent on the track and
strength of the broad surface low. A secondary factor to consider
is the potential development of the Bermuda High. Recent model
runs have strengthened the high, both pushing the Gulf Low
westward, but also driving northwest flow into GA. This
effectively dry wedges much of GA and could have some major
implications to moisture availability across a large portion of
the CWA. Should the wedge like pattern develop, PoPs will be
relegated to the far southern portions of the CWA if not outside
the CWA all together. However, given the uncertainty in the Gulf
Low development will likely maintain low PoPs much further into
Central and North GA than models currently resolve. CAPE and shear
values do not appear all too impressive for this time of the year
so severe weather looks to be unlikely for now.

Temperatures will generally increase as we move through the week,
with highs climbing from the mid 80s up into the mid 90s. Given the
potential moisture, this could be the steamiest conditions we`ve had
so far this year.

SM/01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible south and east of Macon
through 06Z. Then VFR conditions (SKC-FEW AOA 5000 ft AGL and
unrestricted visibility) are expected through 06Z Wednesday. Winds
will primarily be from the north (300-020 degrees) through 06Z
Wednesday, though they could be calm for periods between 00Z and
12Z Tuesday. Wind speeds should be modest (3 to 9 kt) between 14Z
Tuesday and 06Z Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the ATL TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         63  86  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     53  79  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    57  84  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        67  90  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     60  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           66  90  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
Rome            59  85  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  61  87  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         70  91  70  92 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Albright