349
FXUS62 KFFC 101047
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
647 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weak frontal boundary will continue to push south across the CWA
this morning.

The front looks to currently be draped across central portions of
the CWA. A weak shortwave is also noted within the flow aloft, and
is likely helping to steepen lapse rates. Convection has picked up
in the last few hours, with a few strong storms. Getting some
indications of small hail within the storms, and with mid level lapse
rates averaging between 6-6.5 C/km, this trend will likely continue.
In addition, DCAPE across the southern portion of the forecast area
this morning is around 800 J/kg, and any strong storms that develop
will be gusty. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question. The primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. The
storms also contain frequent lighting. The front should continue to
move slowly south through the morning and scattered storms will be
possible until the boundary is south of the CWA. The front looks to
stall across very south GA or the Florida panhandle through the
remainder of the short term forecast period.

Behind this front, much drier dewpoints will settle across much of
north and central GA. Values in the lower to middle 50s will filter
southward today and remain in place through Tuesday. Temps right
around normal are anticipated for today and tomorrow.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday Morning through Sunday Morning.

Models continue to struggle with the long term outlook, so this
discussion will remain overall broad to explore forecast challenges.
A broad upper level ridge will make flow weak across the Southeast
and into the GoM. Models are still attempting to resolve a weak gulf
surface low with the potential to transport significant moisture
northward. The track of the low itself will have major implications
in the amount of moisture that is brought northward. Run to run
model variability on max PWATs has ranged from around 2.0" to as
high as 2.75". Again, dependent on the track and strength of the
broad surface low. A secondary factor to consider is the potential
development of the Bermuda High. Recent model runs have strengthened
the high, both pushing the Gulf Low westward, but also driving
northwest flow into GA. This effectively dry wedges much of GA and
could have some major implications to moisture availability across a
large portion of the CWA. Should the wedge like pattern develop,
PoPs will be relegated to the far southern portions of the CWA if
not outside the CWA all together. However, given the uncertainty in
the Gulf Low development will likely maintain low PoPs much further
into Central and North GA than models currently resolve. CAPE and
shear values do not appear all too impressive for this time of the
year so severe weather looks to be unlikely for now.

Temperatures will generally increase as we move through the week,
with highs climbing from the mid 80s up into the mid 90s. Given the
potential moisture, this could be the steamiest conditions we`ve had
so far this year.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Back edge of the precip is moving across northern portions of the
state. There are some light shra around and some sct IFR. Have
added a tempo group for light shra with a bkn IFR cig. Clearing
behind the precip should be fairly quick. Winds will remain on the
west side through the period.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  86  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         63  86  64  89 /  10   0   0  10
Blairsville     54  79  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    57  84  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        66  90  66  92 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     60  84  63  86 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           66  90  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
Rome            60  84  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  60  86  61  90 /  10   0   0  10
Vidalia         70  91  70  92 /  30   0  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa