979
FXUS62 KFFC 192343
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Primary concern in the short term heavy rain and flash flooding
the rest of the afternoon and early evening over SE most counties.

Rainfall rates with intense and slow-moving convection somewhat
surprising with 2-3 inch per hour rates and amounts up to 5 inches
observed so far. Thankfully soil this time of year and lack of
recent heavy rain has mitigated runoff somewhat, but still more
than enough to produce some isolated flash flooding. PW values
this morning were around 1.4 inches but model and observational
analyses show values around 1.6 inches over SE counties which is
near 95th to 99th percentile for this time of year.

This cluster of storms will continue to push SE out of the area
by 00Z with some lingering showers over north GA where terrain
helped induce isolated convection.

Thankfully, tonight and Monday should be much quieter with only
some isolated showers due to upslope in the NE Georgia mountains
Monday afternoon.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Recent global model guidance continues to indicate no significant
forecast concerns or weather impacts expected in the long term
period. Storms Thursday-Saturday may be strong to marginally
severe depending on strength of vertical wind shear and sfc
forcing.

Temps will continue to warm to well above normal values (+5 to 10
deg anomalies) with max temps near or even above 90F possible
Tuesday through Saturday. Experimental NWS HeatRisk values are
forecast to be in the Minor category with a few spots in
Moderate. See www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more info and
the latest forecasts.

No tropical storm formation expected through Saturday. Previous
long term discussion follows.

SNELSON

Previous Long Term Discussion...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

On Monday night, the positively tilted upper
trough will continue to move eastward into the Atlantic as an
upper ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS. By the beginning of
the long term period, this ridge will extend from the north-
central Gulf into New England. A weak shortwave will traverse the
flow on the northwest side of the ridge. However, any sensible
impacts from this disturbance will stay well to the north of the
forecast area. Surface high pressure associated with the ridge and
centered to the northeast of the forecast area will also largely
serve to inhibit precipitation from Monday night into Tuesday.
After low temperatures start the morning on Tuesday in the upper
50s to low 60s, a warming trend can be expected through midweek.
Highs are forecast to climb into mainly the mid 80s on Tuesday
afternoon, and then into the upper 80s on Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be locally cooler in the higher elevations of
far northeast Georgia. High temperatures through the remainder of
the long term period will range from the mid 80s in north Georgia
to the low 90s in south-central Georgia each afternoon.

A deepening upper low will move from the northern Plains towards the
Great Lakes region on Wednesday, at which time the axis of the ridge
will clear Georgia to the east. Southwesterly upper flow between the
low and the ridge will enter north Georgia, leading to increasing
atmospheric moisture. As the low pressure system becomes occluded
and moves into southeast Canada, a cold front will advance slowly
southward into the Tennessee Valley region by Wednesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into far
north Georgia by early Thursday morning. As the low continues to
move away to the northeast, the frontal boundary will become more
elongated from west to east, and its southward advance will begin to
slow. As such, PoPs on Thursday will mostly be confined to north
Georgia, with chance PoPs to the north of I-20 and progressively
lower chances to the south. By Friday morning, the frontal
boundary is forecast to stall near the Georgia/Tennessee state
line. Model guidance appears to be coming into better agreement on
a shortwave traversing the westerlies and from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley across the Southeast on Friday. This
setup would bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area on Friday, especially the wave overruns the stalled
frontal boundary, providing a focus for additional convection.King

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the period. The few SHRA across N GA
will clear with sunset. Light E to VRB winds overnight. 09Z to
14Z timeframe has potential for IFR CIGS across Metro. Will watch
through same hours for patchy fog potential from Northeast GA
into West Central GA, could including ATL.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium Low Cigs and Vsby late tonight to early tomorrow morning.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         62  83  63  85 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     57  79  58  81 /  20  20  10  10
Cartersville    59  85  60  87 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus        64  84  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     60  82  62  84 /  20   0  10   0
Macon           62  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            62  85  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  59  83  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         64  83  62  85 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...SM