Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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491 FXUS62 KFFC 220550 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 A quiet weather pattern will prevail through the short term. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to suppress any appreciable precipitation chances through Wednesday. The only exception would be an isolated orographically induced shower or thunderstorm this afternoon in the mountains of far northeast Georgia, but the vast majority of us will remain dry. Temperatures Wednesday will continue our gradual warming trend with highs creeping up a degree or two above today, reaching the mid-to-upper 80s areawide outside of the mountains. RW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft will start off the long-term period on Thursday. Perturbations in the flow over the TN Valley will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, mainly across north Georgia. The SREF is depicting virtually a 100% chance for SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg and a 60% chance or greater for CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, and with 30+ kts of surface-to-500mb bulk shear, scattered convection looks likely both days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of the mountains on Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 60s. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will build in this weekend through Monday with continued perturbations in the flow. An influx of moisture -- characterized by PWAT climbing to around 1.5" per ensemble guidance -- and ample instability will support area-wide PoPs, with the greatest PoPs (45% to 65%) across north Georgia each day. SPC has a Day 6 (Sunday) 15% risk for severe weather across a portion of the OH and TN Valleys (just northwest of Georgia) given the progged proximity of a 500mb speed max along with ample progged instability. Across portions of north Georgia on Sunday, the GEFS has a 20% to 30% chance for CAPE greater than 500 J/kg and bulk shear greater than 40 kts, so some strong to severe storms are possible. Highs this weekend and Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions throughout TAF cycle. FEW/SCT cumulus field developing after 15Z before becoming FEW/SCT 250 after sunset. Light SE winds will become more S/SW after sunrise at 5KT or less, occasionally calm to variable at times. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. KAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 88 67 89 / 0 20 10 20 Atlanta 69 88 68 89 / 0 10 10 20 Blairsville 62 81 62 82 / 10 40 20 40 Cartersville 67 88 66 88 / 0 20 10 30 Columbus 69 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 67 86 68 87 / 0 20 10 30 Macon 67 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 10 Rome 67 88 66 88 / 10 20 10 30 Peachtree City 67 88 67 89 / 0 10 0 20 Vidalia 68 91 70 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...KAL