446
FXUS62 KFFC 251826
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The line of thunderstorms continues to move to the southeast, into
an area which has received plenty of destabilizing sunshine. MUCAPE
across the southern CWA hangs around 2000 to 3000 J/KG. However
limited forcing outside the cold pool and little to no shear mean
thunderstorms will likely continue to pulse up and fall along the
cold pool. Conditions behind the line are significantly more stable
with MUCAPE values of ~1000 and over 250 CIN. Given the limited time
for reheating, have left very low PoPs for the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm or shower later this afternoon across the
region. Winds overnight die out with ample surface moisture. This
may mean some patchy fog overnight across North and Western GA.

Small PoPs return across Northeast GA tomorrow morning into early
tomorrow afternoon with several CAMs indicating a potential MCS
through Eastern TN into the Carolinas which may clip the area.
Impacts for the CWA from this should be low, though some
precipitation and some thunder is possible.

Our next chance for thunderstorms comes Monday with a more energetic
front. This system could have some stronger to severe thunderstorms.
GEFs ensemble indicated 60 to 80% probs of CAPE greater than 2000
J/KG and 40 to 50 kts of shear. This currently looks like more of a
wind threat than anything although. We will continue to watch this
as models initialize with a better solution of our current system.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Active weather is still expected for the first part of next week.

A cold front is expected to move through the CWA later Monday into
Tuesday. The higher res models are producing an MCS out ahead of the
main frontal boundary early on Monday. Since the models continue to
struggle with the MCS/MCV/shortwave systems, timing and coverage of
storms will likely have to be adjusted later forecast cycles. The
HRRR has been better lately with trends further out in the forecast
cycle than within the first 12 hours.

Fairly quiet weather anticipated for the remainder of the week. No
major changes needed.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Line of tsra continues to move to the SE. VFR conditions behind
the line. PoPs still in grid for possible isolated thunderstorm,
however left out of taf for low probability and stabilized
conditions in metro. VSBY may drop tonight from patchy fog in W
GA. Winds behind the line currently from the E and NE, however
these should switch back to W over the next couple hours. Winds
overnight become light to variable. Skies clear to CU field after
15Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Confidence convection this afternoon.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  90  69  86 /  20  20  30  60
Atlanta         69  91  71  86 /  20  10  30  60
Blairsville     63  84  64  79 /  20  60  60  70
Cartersville    66  90  68  86 /  20  20  50  70
Columbus        70  93  72  89 /  20   0  10  50
Gainesville     68  88  70  84 /  20  30  40  70
Macon           69  93  71  89 /  20  10  10  50
Rome            67  89  70  86 /  40  20  50  60
Peachtree City  67  91  69  87 /  20  10  20  60
Vidalia         70  93  72  92 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...SM