Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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446 FXUS62 KFFC 251826 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 226 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The line of thunderstorms continues to move to the southeast, into an area which has received plenty of destabilizing sunshine. MUCAPE across the southern CWA hangs around 2000 to 3000 J/KG. However limited forcing outside the cold pool and little to no shear mean thunderstorms will likely continue to pulse up and fall along the cold pool. Conditions behind the line are significantly more stable with MUCAPE values of ~1000 and over 250 CIN. Given the limited time for reheating, have left very low PoPs for the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or shower later this afternoon across the region. Winds overnight die out with ample surface moisture. This may mean some patchy fog overnight across North and Western GA. Small PoPs return across Northeast GA tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon with several CAMs indicating a potential MCS through Eastern TN into the Carolinas which may clip the area. Impacts for the CWA from this should be low, though some precipitation and some thunder is possible. Our next chance for thunderstorms comes Monday with a more energetic front. This system could have some stronger to severe thunderstorms. GEFs ensemble indicated 60 to 80% probs of CAPE greater than 2000 J/KG and 40 to 50 kts of shear. This currently looks like more of a wind threat than anything although. We will continue to watch this as models initialize with a better solution of our current system. SM && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Active weather is still expected for the first part of next week. A cold front is expected to move through the CWA later Monday into Tuesday. The higher res models are producing an MCS out ahead of the main frontal boundary early on Monday. Since the models continue to struggle with the MCS/MCV/shortwave systems, timing and coverage of storms will likely have to be adjusted later forecast cycles. The HRRR has been better lately with trends further out in the forecast cycle than within the first 12 hours. Fairly quiet weather anticipated for the remainder of the week. No major changes needed. NListemaa && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Line of tsra continues to move to the SE. VFR conditions behind the line. PoPs still in grid for possible isolated thunderstorm, however left out of taf for low probability and stabilized conditions in metro. VSBY may drop tonight from patchy fog in W GA. Winds behind the line currently from the E and NE, however these should switch back to W over the next couple hours. Winds overnight become light to variable. Skies clear to CU field after 15Z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium Confidence convection this afternoon. High all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 90 69 86 / 20 20 30 60 Atlanta 69 91 71 86 / 20 10 30 60 Blairsville 63 84 64 79 / 20 60 60 70 Cartersville 66 90 68 86 / 20 20 50 70 Columbus 70 93 72 89 / 20 0 10 50 Gainesville 68 88 70 84 / 20 30 40 70 Macon 69 93 71 89 / 20 10 10 50 Rome 67 89 70 86 / 40 20 50 60 Peachtree City 67 91 69 87 / 20 10 20 60 Vidalia 70 93 72 92 / 20 10 0 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...SM