Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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908 FXUS63 KFGF 071851 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances across the area at various points this weekend and beyond. && .UPDATE... Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Adjusted max temps according to trends a degree or two in a few places, overall trending well. Adjusted pops a bit more keeping majority of precip expected to reach the ground toward early evening/evening. Remainder of forecast on track. Previous Issued at 1023 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Refined pop chances a bit into the afternoon/early evening hours, otherwise forecast remains on track. High clouds moving into the north with some light returns on radar. Maybe a few sprinkles reaching the ground in the far NW, but more likely potential into the afternoon as the more robust returns to the NW spread into the DVL basin and northern RRV. Previous Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Clouds should be entering the western FA shortly. Rain will not show up with them until later this evening. Forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...Synopsis... Clear skies currently over the FA this morning, but clouds are visible to the west on satellite, tracking east. An upper level closed low will push into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan as the weekend continues. While some guidance shows the low being whisked east by upper level flow, most other guidance shows the low sitting in southern Canada for at least a few days. After that, the next week looks like brief ridging then NW/W flow aloft depending on which guidance set you use. ...Precipitation Chances... In regards to rain, the first system is going to begin today and continue into the weekend. Precipitation amounts from this first wave Friday into Saturday look to be <0.25", but the probabilities for >0.25" are 20 - 30% in the area between MN HWY 200 and I-94. Sunday looks to have precipitation chances too, but the chances are only around 20% at most in the area, and QPF amounts look to be less than 0.10". Next chance for rain will be from a shortwave late Monday into Tuesday next week, but again, moisture looks to be lacking with probabilities for >0.25" about 20 - 30% across the whole area. With both these systems, the chances for severe weather are low, and widespread thunderstorm chances are low in guidance with lack of instability. We are entering the season of pop-up thunderstorms though, so some isolated ones on a sunny day cannot be ruled out. Because of the divergence in guidance with regards to the upper level pattern, predictability for showers and thunderstorms goes down and gets washed out to minor chances nearly every day. We will have to see how these chances show themselves in the CAMS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with increasing mid clouds this evening and clearing skies into Saturday morning. An area of showers to move southeastward through the area mainly this evening and tried to time best chances for showers at all terminal sites with the tempo groups. Might see a brief MVFR CIG or VSBY with the strongest showers, but overall expect mainly lower VFR CIGS with any showers, and VSBYS above 6SM. Some uncertainty in how much rain will reach the ground in spots, and intensity of the showers with the best chances for a stronger shower at KFAR and KBJI. Northwesterly winds becoming more westerly to southwesterly into Saturday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJB DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...MJB