423
FXUS65 KFGZ 232353
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
453 PM MST Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue
through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over
eastern Arizona towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s been a sluggish start to showers and storms
popping up this afternoon, but we are starting to see isolated
activity. Recent runs of the U of A WRF show more storm
development after 2 PM and continuing into the evening hours,
which is consistent with a few other Hi-Res models. There also
still seems to be a focus over Coconino County, especially along
the Kaibab Plateau. The first lightning strikes of the day were
near Jacob Lake, but it`s truly a shot in the dark to try and
pin-point exactly where we are going to see storm coverage for the
rest of the afternoon/evening.

This monsoon pattern will continue through much of the week, with
a more typical-monsoon flow (high pressure over the Four Corners)
shaping up by mid- week. As a result, expect scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday.

As we move towards the end of the week/weekend, the previously
mentioned monsoon pattern will gradually weaken to a less
pronounced west/southwest flow due to a passing trough. This will
limit showers/thunderstorms to eastern Arizona, and a few areas
across the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 24/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...VFR conditions
will mostly prevail, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier
SHRA/TSRA. Chances for showers/storms will be greatest until
around 06Z with clearing expected overnight...and then again 18Z
to 00Z Monday. Gusty/erratic winds will be likely near storms,
but otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/00Z through Thursday 27/00Z...SHRA/TSRA
chances will continue each afternoon/evening through the outlook
period. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any given
storm. Outside of outflow winds, expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts.
Overnight winds will become light and variable. VFR conditions
will prevail, minus brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours tonight, and
are expected to return both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Heavy
rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible
with any storm. Outside of storm driven winds, look for southwest
winds 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values ranging between 25-45% daily.

Wednesday through Friday...Look for daily chances for
showers/thunderstorms, but chances will gradually decrease each
afternoon. Outside of gusty outflow winds, expect west-southwest
winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH values generally between 25-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff