191
FXUS64 KFWD 050704
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
204 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/

Currently, a stout MCS is currently moving south through North
Texas as a shortwave trough transits through the Central Plains.
RAP analysis shows 8-9 degC/km lapse rates and abundant
instability, allowing for a continued threat for strong to severe-
caliber wind and hail threats through this morning. As the
cluster has taken on quite a bowing structure, damaging wind gusts
will remain the primary threat along the leading edge of the
line. Additionally, PWATs > 1.5" will promote a continued flood
threat, especially for areas that have received heavy rain in the
last few days. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this
morning for areas east of I-35 that are expected to receive the
majority of this morning`s rainfall.

Just behind this MCS, a weak cold front will move south across
the region as the base of the shortwave trough continues to swing
into the Deep South. This front will help to make outdoor
conditions a bit more bearable by bringing slightly cooler and
less humid air to North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs
to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s. Slightly drier air filtering
into the region, coupled with those cooler temperatures, will help
to keep afternoon heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for
the majority of the region.

The weak front will eventually stall across southern Central
Texas. Lingering storms near the frontal boundary will be possible
through this afternoon, but with subsident high surface pressure
quickly moving into the region, coverage will be very isolated.
All rain should come to an end by this evening, with most of the
region continuing to experience northeasterly winds behind the
stalled front. The surface high will keep winds light and
conditions fairly clear going into Thursday. Saturated soils and
more efficient radiational processes will allow for patchy
fog/mist overnight into Thursday morning, mainly east of I-35.

Thursday afternoon will be a tad warmer in the 90s region-wide as
southerly winds shift the stalled front back northward as a warm
front.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain
chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region-
wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in
the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas
Thursday afternoon.

Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great
Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains
toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is
highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the
Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next
few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise
placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a
subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection
from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence
in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to
get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across
portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft
will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of
producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible.
If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains
by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and
west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under
active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity
will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing
north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average
temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend.

Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold
front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame,
increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection
across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased
cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures
back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

D10:
MVFR has blanketed the TAF sites in advance of a MCS. The western
edge of the thunderstorm complex should directly impact D10 from
08-12Z. During this time, main impacts will be lightning with
strong northerly winds in excess of 20g30kt. Winds will
temporarily shift back to ESE- SE through the rest of the morning
before a weak front moves through around 17Z and prevails N-NE
winds through the rest of the day. VFR is expected through the end
of the period.

ACT:
Southerly gusty winds and MVFR will prevail at ACT through the
early morning hours, before the associated MCS gust front shifts
winds to the north around 12-14Z. Winds will transition to
prevailing N-NE late this afternoon around 22Z as the weak front
moves through. VFR is expected through the end of the period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  95  76  94  77 /   0   0   5  20  10
Waco                73  93  74  93  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
Paris               67  92  70  89  72 /   0   0   5  10  10
Denton              69  94  72  93  75 /   0   0   5  20  10
McKinney            69  92  72  92  75 /   0   0   5  20  10
Dallas              73  96  75  93  76 /   0   0   5  20  10
Terrell             70  92  73  92  74 /   0   0   0  20  10
Corsicana           72  93  75  93  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Temple              72  93  74  94  75 /   5   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  95  73  94  75 /   0   0   5  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-
120>123-135-148.

&&

$$