579
FXUS64 KFWD 031945
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

Another round of storms is now moving into North Texas, bringing
a renewed threat for both severe weather and flash flooding.

The airmass across North Texas remains quite moist, evident by
the >75F dew points that are now approaching the I-20 corridor at
this time. Couple the moist airmass with localized ascent due a
southward surging cold pool and we`ll once again be talking about
another round of storms moving southward through the region this
afternoon. Precipitable water values continue to be at or slightly
above the 90th percentile, meaning, these thunderstorms will
continue to produce heavy rain. Antecedent soil conditions are
likely to lead to quick runoff with renewed flooding possible.

In addition to the southward surging line, additional storms will
be possible east of I-35 and south of I-20 along a tight theta-e
gradient. If storms can develop in this region, a few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon.

After the late afternoon system moves through, we`ll have to
monitor any additional thunderstorm development across the TX
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. There is guidance that suggests
the dryline will set off a few storms and congeal them into a
complex. Corfidi vectors suggest a southeastward moving complex
may push across the region late this evening into tonight from the
northwest. If these storms do occur, damaging winds, large hail
and flash flooding will be the main hazards once again. Confidence
in this line of storms remains low.

For tomorrow, some relief from the rain is expected as weak
ridging aloft likely keeps precipitation at bay. Unfortunately,
this will mean the heat returns with highs in the mid to upper
90s. A few triple digit readings cannot be ruled out in western
North Texas.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

The heat will continue to be the main headline as we move through
the middle of the upcoming week. Afternoon highs will range in
the low to mid 90s, with continued saturation in the low levels as
seen by our dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices will
reach up to 105 to 109 degrees at times across portions of North
and Central Texas, which may result in heat illness in some of our
population. Be sure to take frequent breaks over the next several
days, avoid peak heating hours, and drink plenty of water.

The other talking point will be the continued low chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week and once
again toward the end of the week into the weekend. Coverage,
timing, and hazards will need to continue to be refined over the
next several days as confidence remains quite low. Much of this
will hinge on the exact placement of remnant outflow boundaries,
on top on the evolution of potential convective clusters and they
continue to push to the south and east across the Red River.
Thankfully it appears that coverage will be lower than it has been
in recent days, which will help to provide a much needed break as
clean up crews continue to work to clean up damage across
portions of our coverage area. Flooding issues will continue to be
a threat as well as any additional rainfall could cause problems
at this point. Soils are incredibly saturated and reservoir lakes
are full. It won`t take much to cause additional flooding
problems, so continue to be aware of this as we move through the
days.

As has been said several times over the past few days, continue
to check back for updates as the forecast can and will evolve.
Confidence has been quite low as of late as guidance has been all
over the place. Short term and near term changes may be necessary
at times depending on real-time observations through radar, and
satellite interpretation and surface analysis.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low ceilings, TSRA and wind shift late this afternoon.
Low confidence in second round of storms overnight.

The MVFR deck that spread across the region this morning is in
the process of scattering out, evident by the speckling of
MVFR/VFR across the region. This will likely improve to VFR as
low-level mixing increases cloud heights. The improvements are
likely to be temporary as a line of storms inches closer to the
D10 airspace. VCTS has been shifted earlier to account for the
approaching line of storms. TSRA is now advertised between 21-00Z
where northerly winds appear likely. The northerly winds will
linger for a few hours before southeasterly winds return to the
area. A similar trend is expected at Waco closer to 00Z.

Improvements are expected after 00Z as VFR returns to the region.
This too, will be temporary as low-level moisture comes back and
MVFR once again overspread the region. Confidence in an afternoon
round of storms remains too low to include in the TAF, therefore,
we`ll continue to monitor trends through the next several hours.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  76  91  76 /  20   5  20  10   5
Waco                72  92  75  91  74 /  30   5  10  10  20
Paris               69  87  73  87  71 /  30  20  30  20   5
Denton              72  93  74  90  72 /  20   5  20  10   5
McKinney            72  91  75  89  73 /  30   5  20  10   5
Dallas              72  93  76  92  75 /  20   5  20  10  10
Terrell             72  90  74  89  72 /  30   5  20  20  10
Corsicana           74  92  76  91  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
Temple              74  94  76  92  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
Mineral Wells       72  97  75  93  73 /  10   0  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$