554
FXUS64 KFWD 150413
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

A shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains is acting to
break down the synoptic scale upper ridge, and this process will
maintain a relative weakness aloft locally through the weekend.
Despite the absence of strong ridging overhead, little in the way
of forcing will be present to allow for convection, especially
given a dearth of low-level moisture content. These factors will
yield a seasonably hot weekend with highs in the mid 90s and lows
in the low/mid 70s. At most, a percolating cumulus field across
portions of southeast Texas on Sunday afternoon could mature into
very isolated rain shower activity, but these rain chances across
our southeast zones are less than 10%. A southeasterly wind of
10-15 mph will prevail through the entire weekend, offering modest
relief from the summer heat. With fairly aggressive mixing out of
surface dewpoints during the daytime, heat index values will
remain comparable to ambient temperatures.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

A shortwave disturbance currently over the Four Corners will
continue to slowly move east over the next several days, eventually
traversing across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Forcing for
ascent will allow for the development of scattered showers and
storms to our north and west early Sunday morning. Our region
should remain dry as the better lift and moisture remains
displaced to the north, but the GFS continues to show potential
for precipitation to move into our northwestern counties. Have
refrained from including >10-15% PoPs as the GFS is more "the
exception, not the rule" and the ensembles are even less
optimistic. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this as we go into
the weekend.

As the shortwave moves across the Continental Divide, the upper
ridge mentioned in the short term discussion above will be shunted
eastward in response. By early this upcoming week, the large-scale
pattern will feature the ridge to our east and a longwave trough to
our west. Moisture advection will ramp up on the back side of the
ridge, sending 70s dewpoints and 1.5-2" PWATs across the region.
Models continue to depict a weakness in the ridge overhead through
midweek.

Isolated to scattered rain chances will continue to be possible
through the end of the week as the northern periphery of a GOM
tropical disturbance moves inland through South and Central Texas.
This disturbance will bring even richer moisture to our southern
zones late week. Best chances for rain and storms looks to remain
south of I-20 in Central Texas as the disturbance is offset to our
south. Forecast soundings show long, skinny CAPE profiles and around
2" PWATs which are indicative of very efficient rainfall producing
storms. Hence, heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats and
will impact outdoor plans. Rainfall accumulations Wednesday
through the end of the week are still uncertain in regards to
exact northward extent and exact amount, but highest rainfall
totals in our CWA are expected in Central Texas closer to the
disturbance.

High temperatures in the afternoons this upcoming week will be
slightly cooler than previous days, peaking in the lower 90s (and
even 80s on Thursday). However, the increased humidity will keep
peak heat indices within the mid 90s to around 100 degree range
most days.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR and southeast winds of 8-12 kts will persist through the
period, with a few higher daytime gusts of 15-20 kts. Any
nocturnal MVFR stratus intrusions are expected to remain well
south and east of the TAF sites.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  95  76  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  93  73  91  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               69  93  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              73  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  95  76  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             71  93  72  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  94  74  94  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              71  93  72  93  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       68  94  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$