Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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263 FXUS64 KFWD 062241 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 541 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ A mid level ridge will continue to expand east across North Texas over the next 36 hours, providing seasonably hot and rain-free conditions through the end of the week. Highs both today and Friday should reach well into the 90s. Fortunately dewpoints will remain in the 60s, which will preclude the need for a Heat Advisory at any point. The pressure gradient will tighten on Friday as North and Central Texas become wedged between a surface ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a deepening lee cyclone, which will make for a hot and breezy Friday across the region. The stronger south winds will keep Friday night`s temperatures mostly in the 70s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/ /Saturday through Thursday/ The weekend weather will feature rain-free and warm conditions across North Central Texas, as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Daytime temperatures will rise well into the 90s areawide Saturday, which represents above normal conditions for early June. However, with slightly restrained humidity, heat indices at most locales should only top out in the upper 90s. The ridge will shift just a bit east on Sunday, inhibiting the highs from climbing much beyond the lower to middle 90s. However, slightly higher dewpoints should result in similar heat index vales to those seen Saturday. A pattern evolution will commence Sunday night as the upper ridge begins to flatten, and the first of multiple subtle shortwaves approaches the region from the northwest. The arrival of this weak forcing for ascent will create an opportunity for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our immediate northwest late Sunday night into Monday. Maintained low chance PoPs across our northwest counties Sunday night, spreading area wide on Monday. Substantial cloudiness, coupled with areas of rain and the arrival of a weak cold front, will help limit high temperatures Monday to the 80s. Apart from the likely presence of the weak boundary loitering across our southern zones, overall synoptic scale forcing will be a bit more nebulous on Tuesday. As a result, kept PoPs Tuesday in the slight chance/low chance range, with low PoPs persisting into Wednesday due to widely separated diurnal convection. Highs in the 80s will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, due to residual cloudcover and an absence of large scale subsidence. Unfortunately, an upper ridge will reassert itself across northern Mexico and Texas from Thursday into Friday, sending daytime highs back into the upper 90s by the end of the week. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ High pressure aloft will provide VFR and overall quiet aviation weather through Friday night. Winds should remain light southeast tonight, becoming south at 10-15 kt on Friday. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 96 76 96 75 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 70 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 69 91 71 92 73 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 71 94 73 95 73 / 10 5 0 0 0 McKinney 71 93 73 94 73 / 5 5 0 0 0 Dallas 72 94 76 96 75 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 70 91 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 93 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 70 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 71 95 73 98 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$