985
FXUS62 KGSP 250208
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1008 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal through the holiday weekend
with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A cold front
on Monday brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler and drier conditions move in behind the front and remain
through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Friday: Convection continues to fire this evening
across the forecast area, with the most recent activity confined to
the Highway 221 corridor and vicinity. The latest SPC Mesoanalysis
indicates muCAPE has been reduced to around 1000 J/kg or less, so
the potential for severe convection has largely waned, but a few
stronger cells producing gusty winds will remain possible. Based
upon radar trends, PoPs only lower slowly over the next few hours.
Some areas, particularly western zones will not see PoPs drop below
20% overnight. However, the 00Z run of the HRRR has backed off
considerably re: chances for late night redevelopment in association
with a weak short wave trough. Therefore, PoPs will be limited to
the token 20-30% range.

Areas that get rain this evening can expect some patchy fog before
dawn, but that won`t last long before skies clear. Lows will fall
into the mid-60s again. Another round of convection is expected
tomorrow, but should be even less active than today. Weak ridging
will begin to develop over the Southeast CONUS overnight, and the
only supporting upper feature for convection will be an embedded
shortwave that dips across the Appalachians and into the Piedmont by
afternoon. CAMs suggest that a line of showers and thunderstorms
will cross the area during the mid-afternoon, organized more by
their supporting upper feature than by any inherent storm-scale
dynamics.  Sans much of an upper wave to work with, there`s pretty
good consensus that deep shear will be <20kts, and so severe risk
looks muted compared to today`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday: A short wave ridge builds in on Sunday but
there is a short wave trough that weakens as it moves through the
ridge. Guidance has backed off on precip chances in response, with
chc PoP north of the I-85 corridor and slight chc along and south.
Have followed this trend as well. Any storms that do fire could
become severe with moderate instability and shear, along with dry
mid level air, in place. Precip chances increase late Sunday night
into Monday as the ridge moves east and a stronger short wave digs
across the area. PoP still favors the area north of the I-85
corridor with likely PoP and chance along and south. Severe storms
look less likely even though shear remains moderate. There is less
mid level dry air and low level lapse rates aren`t as steep. Temps
will be up to 10 degrees above normal both days, with 90 possible
along and south of I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday: A series of short waves dig out a trough across
the eastern CONUS which remains in place through the end of the
period. Moisture lingers behind the the cold front moving through
Monday night, keeping a small chance of convection on Tuesday. Drier
and cooler high pressure builds in for the rest of the period. Temps
will remain above normal on Tuesday then fall to near normal for
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated convection is ongoing across the
Terminal Forecast Area this evening. Most of the activity is
concentrated near KGSP, so tempos for TSRA are included for the
first hour there, as well as at KGMU. VCSH or VCTS is carried at the
other sites (with the exception of KHKY). This includes KCLT, where
confidence is waning that convection will occur this evening, so
VCSH has replaced the tempo for TSRA. Having said that, some of the
high resolution guidance is redeveloping convection overnight in
association with a weak upper air disturbance. For the most part,
the current TAFS reflect little in the way of convective activity
after midnight, but this may need to be revisited later this
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally forecast through
the period, although some 4-6SM BR is possible toward daybreak,
especially in the mtn valleys (including KAVL). Winds will generally
be light and variable overnight, and light westerly during the
daylight hours Saturday. Isolated to widely scattered convection is
expected to develop again Sat evening, warranting Prob30s for TSRA
at most sites.

Outlook: A unsettled pattern will linger thru the rest of the
weekend and into early next week, allowing for diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances each day and at least patchy fog development
each night/morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL