317
FXUS64 KHGX 232315
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today`s observed weather conditions (as of the writing of this
discussion) should be generally characteristic of the upcoming
week, albeit with the potential for scattered thunderstorms on a
slight increasing trend over the course of the week. Observed
highs at the 3 PM hour have generally settled in the lower to mid
90s, with mid-70s dew points pushing apparent temperature values
into the 100-105 range for most locations. Some airmass/diurnally
driven thunderstorms have continued to move inland off of the Gulf
through the afternoon, though any storms that have developed have
(and will remain) short-lived and have produced mostly
inconsequential rainfall totals. Overnight lows, aided by light
but nonetheless steady WAA, should remain mostly in the upper 70s
with variable winds prevailing.

Mid/upper ridging will continue to dominate the synoptic picture
as we head into next week, allowing for a very slight increase in
maximum temps over the course of the next several days as the
ridge continues to strengthen over the South Central CONUS.
Daytime highs tomorrow should reach the mid 90s, which, combined
with mid-70s dew points, will produce conditions just under what
would generally necessitate a Heat Advisory. Another slight
chance of diurnally driven showers/storms remains in the forecast,
but rainfall amounts will once again be minimal. Another night of
mid to upper 70s lows is also expected tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The extended period will continue to be dominated by upper ridging
over the South Central CONUS, providing the Greater Houston area
with a typical, relatively benign summertime pattern. The main
concern during this time will be the prospect for excessive heat,
with maximum Heat Index values expected to approach the 110 mark
for many locations over the course of the week while WBGT may
reach black flag conditions at times. Given this, it`s likely that
some or all of the area will be under a Heat Advisory at times
throughout the week. In general, daytime highs in the mid to
occasionally upper 90s with mid-70s dew points can be expected
each afternoon with light to moderate SE winds.

Daily chances for airmass/diurnally driven storms remain in the
forecast, mainly focused along the advancing sea/bay breeze and
with chances highest along and south of the I-10 corridor. While a
few storms may occur for any individual location over the course
of the week, measurable rainfall amounts will be fairly minimal.
The prevailing ridge will weaken slightly and shift to the west by
Thursday, allowing an embedded shortwave to potentially trigger
some more widespread storms. However, PoP values generally max out
in he 30-40% range for the time being.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Seeing a few SHRA early this eve, but most of this activity is
west or east of the central TAF sites. These showers will
dissipate by 2z with the loss of heating. Could see a few patches
of 5SM to 6SM BR early morning at LBX, SGR, CXO. Expecting a typical
summer diurnal pattern with SE winds increasing with mixing
during the morning and then with the bay/sea breeze late aft/early
eve.

Wood


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Generally benign marine conditions are expected over the course of
the upcoming week, with daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast
but overall storm coverage remaining low. Seas will remain on a
diminishing trend, reaching around 2 feet by Tuesday. Winds will
remain out of the southwest, staying below caution criteria
throughout the upcoming week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  77  95  77  95 /   0  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  81  88 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Cady