601
FXUS63 KICT 210528
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible Tuesday evening in southeast Kansas

 - Chances for and intensity of convection for Thursday, Friday
   and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Satellite and surface analysis showing low pressure across the
western part of Oklahoma southeast of KGAG.  A quasi-stationary
front extends north through western Kansas up through KHLC, then
northeast up through east-central Nebraska.  This boundary will be
the focus for convection over the next several days and nights.

Upper level satellite, model, and observational data remains
consistent in a continued active pattern over the next several days,
with perturbations moving through the mean flow. At the
surface, the latest of these pushes a cold front through the
area tonight, aided by the convection (convective cold pool)
that will develop across Nebraska and northern Kansas.

The front will stall over southeast Kansas Tuesday, with
favorable shear/buoyancy combinations and hodograph shape for
possible tornadoes in southeast Kansas.

The high pressure over the remainder of the area will be short
lived as another Lee trough develops Thursday. With the Gulf
being open, significant moisture returns to the area to support
storm development later in the week.

Shear/buoyancy combinations improve each day starting on
Thursday with the most favorable location being southeast
Kansas. At this time, Friday and Saturday evening look the most
favorable for severe weather, including tornadoes. Hodograph
shape looks most favorable as the upper level winds veer
consistently with height.

Bottom line, severe weather chances increase later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

LLWS will affect central Kansas and portions of south-central
Kansas this morning as a strong LLJ develops over the region.
Surface winds will also remain out of the south or southeast at
around 15 to 25 knots through about 12-14Z this morning. A cold
front will push across the region throughout much of the day
today, and winds will gradually shift from southerly, to
westerly, and then eventually northerly by this evening or
tonight.

A slight chance of a couple of storms is possible across
southeast Kansas this evening, but chances are currently low
enough to omit this from the KCNU TAF.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRC
AVIATION...JC