643
FXUS63 KICT 240547
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms (some severe) this afternoon and evening

- Nice quiet day for Friday

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) for
  Saturday afternoon and into the overnight&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Current synoptic setup shows continued moisture advection into the
CWA this afternoon with an approaching frontal system from the
west.  Lapse rates start off decent (7-8C) but then 700mb
warming takes over reducing them to the 5-6C range.
Additionally, the CWA is rather capped with a decent mid level
inversion that it taking its time to break. This lends to a
conditional thunderstorms threat with the best chance for
thunderstorm activity likely to be just to the west of the CWA.
Expecting this thunderstorm activity to develop after 4PM this
afternoon and may become more prolific as the evening
progresses. Most of the ensembles are indicating improving lapse
rates into the evening time frame which will make thunderstorm
activity more favorable provided thunderstorms can even initiate
this afternoon. If they do, mid and upper level shear is rather
good so these thunderstorms are likely to grow up scale and
become severe with large hail and winds in the 70mph range with
the strongest storms. The tornado threat is not great but also,
not zero either and as such, a tornado is possible with the
stronger storms this evening. Tonight, the front will be pushing
through and will bring the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to much of the CWA. After 9PM, the parameters
remain favorable to thunderstorm activity but the best chances
for severe thunderstorm activity is expected to remain to the
north. That said, the severe thunderstorm threat for the CWA
will remain but somewhat reduced with main threat being 60 mph
winds during the overnight. Additionally, expecting the northern
areas of the CWA to have the best chances for the severe
thunderstorm activity tonight.

Friday, the front will have pushed through the region and will bring
the winds back around to the north and west.  While this is normally
a strong CAA direction, do not expect temperatures to drop too much
and are likely to remain near normal.  Winds will be a little brisk
but expected to remain well below advisory level at this time.
Friday night, the winds will slowly shift back to the south and
southeast and allow the moisture advection to return to the region.
This will help "reload" the atmosphere with the needed fuel for
another round of thunderstorm activity.  Severe thunderstorms are
likely Saturday afternoon and into the overnight period.  Most of
the ensembles are fully on board with this with a few outliers
showing a lot less activity.  That said, lapse rates of 8C-10C are
likely to be prevalent with a shear profile that strongly supports
discrete super cells that could be long lived. This setup
strongly supports the potential for a significant severe weather
event but new ensemble runs also point to a couple of problems
with this possibility. The first is the 300-250mb jet placement
is good but not great and may be just a little too far south to
permit wide spread severe thunderstorm development. The second
is the fact the moisture required to fuel this activity is
expected to arrive "just in time" which presents to possibility
it may not arrive in time. This may also be impacted by how much
mid level moisture is present and could keep the clouds in
place for much of the morning and into the afternoon. This could
make it difficult for the needed instability in the late
afternoon and into the evening. If any these possibilities
occur, then the extent of the thunderstorm activity less than
currently expected. Despite these possibilities, will continue
to expect a significant severe weather outbreak for Saturday and
into the overnight. Will need to see later forecast runs before
a higher confidence in Saturday afternoon and into the
overnight can occur.

Next week, the pattern looks to quiet down with ridging and
northerly winds pushing into the region.  Temperatures look to cool
down a little but will remain near normal for this time of year. The
next chance for thunderstorms looks to be next Wednesday afternoon.
Intensity of this activity is not known as ensembles do not agree on
timing and location.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A few aviation concerns exist for the area from now through
about 15Z this morning.

An approaching cold front is triggering storms across northern
Kansas tonight, but these storms should stay along or just north
of the I-70 corridor. South and east of the front, MVFR cigs are
expected to continue developing, and could be widespread for
much of the morning hours prior to frontal passage. Regardless
of thunderstorm development, a sharp wind shift from
southeasterly to northwesterly is expected. Currently winds
ahead of the front are sustained around 15-25 knots with gusts
around 25-40 knots. Similar wind speeds and gusts are expected
after frontal passage as well.

By 15Z, the front should clear southeast Kansas, and drier air
should allow for MVFR cigs to clear from the area. Currently,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail by 15-17Z late this
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...JC