370
FXUS63 KICT 050539
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms likely this evening with severe storms possible. Hail and
wind will be main threats.

- Dry conditions move-in for Wednesday through the daytime hours
Friday.

- Storm chances will increase for the Friday night through at
  least the Sunday night time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Complicated setup currently ongoing across the area with CAMS
really struggling with ongoing convection. Storms are
ongoing across north central and northeast KS just ahead of a
mid level trough and at the surface, cold front extends from
central Nebraska into Central KS and finally into Western OK.
However, hard to tell which is the synoptic front and which is
outflow from ongoing storms.

The main question for this evening and overnight will be if and how
many storms develop along the front/outflow as it pushes
southeast. Current thinking is that storms currently over north
central KS will maintain as they track east into an airmass
that remains unstable and just ahead of the mid level
trough/baroclinic zone. Also possible they may become more
surfaced based as they track east. Confidence in storm
development decreases further south along the front as much of
south central KS remains socked-in with low clouds which may
limit instability some. Things working in favor of storm
development would be a fairly pronounced mid/upper trough
providing plenty of background lift along with some decent
convergence along the front. Going with the thinking that storms
will try and develop generally in the 22-01z time frame over
south central KS/Flint Hills with possibly better coverage over
northern OK where better instability and convergence will be
located.

Any storms that develop over south central KS into the Flint
Hills will dive southeast overnight into very good instability
with the main threat turning into damaging winds. So by 06z,
any storms that are ongoing would likely be affecting only far
south central and southeast KS before quickly moving off into
OK.

Behind this upper impulse we will quickly transition to northwest
flow aloft with dry conditions expected for both Wed and Thu. A weak
cold front is forecast to slide down Wed evening but not expecting
anything to develop along it as better upper forcing will be to the
northeast.

There is good model agreement in the upper flow become slightly more
zonal for Fri into Fri night which will setup some good mid level
moisture transport and theta-e advection which should allow for some
elevated convection Fri evening through the overnight hours.
The better storm chances look to be over central and especially
eastern KS where moisture transport will be maximized. Will
remain active for both Sat and Sun with west/northwest flow
remaining in place along with an east-west boundary through KS.
So it appears we are looking for multiple rounds of MCS activity
with evening and overnight hours having the higher storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs across the region as
surface high pressure builds over the area in the wake of a cold
frontal passage. Winds will gradually switch from the north to
the southwest as the surface high pressure slides eastward
during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ