739
FXUS61 KILN 270555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight
with the passage of a cold front. Surface high pressure will
build in and provide drier weather through Friday. Another
system builds back in for the start of the weekend, leading to
additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Precipitation is exiting the region this evening. Cloud cover
will continue to decrease and winds will be pretty light
especially initially. Due to this have already started to see
some reduced visibilities. Expect additional fog development as
more clouds start to clear. Have patchy fog to patchy dense fog
in the forecast, however will have to monitor to see if specific
locations will need a dense fog advisory at some point. Working
against the fog is some slightly drier air working in and also
winds will pick up slightly more towards daybreak across the
northern portions of the region. It might be too little too late
however and for that reason have highlighted a large portion of
the region in the HWO for fog.

Low temperatures overnight will be in the lower 60s to upper
50s and went a little cooler than the blend for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Thursday will offer more seasonable temperatures as surface
high pressure builds in from the NW. The northerly flow will
help usher in relatively drier air as well, with dewpoints
ranging in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the weak CAA
present, cu development seems probable during the late morning
and afternoon hours. Still, expecting a fair amount of sunshine
throughout the day, with temperatures ranging in the upper 70s
to middle 80s.

Skies clear out once again Thursday night, with favorable
radiative cooling leading to temperatures dropping into the
middle 50s to near 60 across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be shifting off to the east through
the day on Friday. Developing return flow on the back side of
this will allow for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper
80s through the afternoon.

Mid level short wave energy will spread east across the
southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday night and then through
the day on Saturday with an associated cold front dropping
southeast across our region Saturday night. Increasing southwest
flow and moisture advection ahead of this will lead to a
developing chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Temperatures on
Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the timing of this but
will generally range highs from the upper 80s in the northwest
to the lower 90s in the southeast. Surface dewpoints will also
be creeping up into the lower to possibly mid 70s through the
day so some heat indices of around 100 degrees or so may be
possible, especially across southeast portions of our area. This
will also lead to the potential for some decent destabilization
through the day so a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Pcpn chances will
taper off from the northwest later Saturday night as the cold
front moves through.

A cooler air mass will begin to filter into the region behind
the front on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s
northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast. Temperatures on
Monday will be several degrees below normal with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper level ridging will build in from
the southwest through mid week, leading to a return to warmer
temperatures with highs Tuesday and Wednesday back into the mid
80s to lower 90s. Some mid level energy moving over the ridge
will lead to some lower end chances for thunderstorms toward the
end of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very difficult TAF forecast through sunrise as patchy to
areas of fog/stratus, some locally dense fog, have formed from
clearing skies, recent rainfall, and generally light winds.
Conditions could literally vary from VFR to LIFR in short
distances. Will continue to monitor trends overnight and compare
to current TAF forecast. There may be some slight improvement
before sunrise, especially north, as some drier air on north
winds advects southward.

Between 11Z and 13Z, the shallow fog and stratus should
dissipate with the start of diurnal heating. Otherwise, under a
west to northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure will build
south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some FEW-SCT cumulus
clouds will develop in the weak CAA pattern around 16Z. Winds
will remain from the north between 5 and 10 knots.

For tonight, the center of the high will shift east to the
eastern Great Lakes. This will allow winds to shift to a
northeast then east direction between 5 and 10 knots. Some
scattered high level clouds are forecast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman